What will Putin do next? And other key questions

Emergency information measures stay successful spot successful Moscow, aft a rebellion by Wagner mercenaries that has shaken the presumption of the Russian president.

Many questions are inactive outstanding.

In a startling 24 hours, Vladimir Putin faced the top situation to his authorization since coming to powerfulness much than 2 decades ago. While the contiguous hazard seems contained, Russia experts accidental Putin does not look looking strong, but alternatively severely bruised.

Mr Putin's widely-noted loathing of betrayal appeared reflected successful his stern nationalist TV code connected Saturday morning, wherever helium accused Wagner person Yevgeny Prigozhin of a "stab successful the back" and treason.

Russia's president has not been seen successful nationalist since, and nary caller statesmanlike code was being planned successful the adjacent future. In a pre-recorded interrogation connected authorities TV connected Sunday - which appeared to person been conducted earlier the rebellion - Mr Putin said helium was assured successful the advancement of the warfare successful Ukraine.

Anti-terror information measures are inactive successful spot successful Moscow, but it is unclear whether President Putin is adjacent successful the Russian superior astatine the moment.

Some expect Mr Putin volition lash retired successful immoderate way, either militarily astatine Ukraine, oregon astatine those wrong Russia who person been unsupportive.

Polish MEP Radek Sikorski told the BBC that the Russian person would "probably purge those who helium saw arsenic wavering", meaning his authorities volition go "more authoritarian and much brutal astatine the aforesaid time".

The antheral down the rebellion, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is simply a escaped man. Despite trying to topple the subject enactment of Russia, the complaint of equipped mutiny against him has been dropped. But we don't cognize each the details of the statement that was reached betwixt the Kremlin and Wagner.

Russia analysts bash not expect Prigozhin to vanish softly into the night.

The mercenary person - who has been a precise vocal figurehead for tens of thousands of fighters successful Ukraine - has besides been an important fig for President Putin, operating successful the shadows for a agelong time.

He has spent years been doing soiled enactment for the Kremlin, from warring successful Syria to warring successful Ukraine successful 2014, erstwhile it annexed Crimea.

But aft challenging Mr Putin's authorization - and immoderate reason humiliating the Russian person - questions astir what guarantees helium was fixed for his security, and his relation going guardant are inactive to beryllium answered.

Observers are questioning however overmuch power Belarusian person Alexander Lukashenko volition beryllium capable to exert implicit Prigozhin - if so helium does spell to Minsk - and, should Wagner forces travel him, what menace they volition airs to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

Before this astonishing equipped mutiny, tens of thousands of Wagner mercenaries were playing a cardinal relation successful Mr Putin's warfare connected Ukraine. But Wagner's days arsenic an autarkic service were already coming to an end.

Prigozhin and his forces person been resisting unit to sorb them into the Russian defence ministry - and disgust astatine that determination is seen arsenic a cardinal origin successful turning a long-running feud into rebellion.

But with the short-lived insurrection implicit - and Prigozhin present seemingly heading to exile - galore are asking what his fighters volition do.

Charges person seemingly been dropped against those progressive successful the mutiny. Videos connected societal media person shown Wagner troops leaving the metropolis of Rostov-on-Don, wherever they had taken power of subject bases. The politician of Voronezh, which is fractional mode betwixt Rostov and Moscow, has said Wagner forces are besides leaving his region.

However, it is unclear whether they volition present simply co-operate and beryllium integrated into the regular Russian subject - oregon adjacent if Russia's regular soldiers volition present willingly service alongside them.

And volition they simply instrumentality to warring successful existing struggle zones successful Ukraine, arsenic Russian authorities media suggest? Some analysts person raised concerns that fighters could travel Prigozhin westbound if helium does spell to Belarus - the closest constituent from wherever Russia could onslaught the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

The Wagner radical has been providing immoderate of the astir palmy daze troops warring successful Ukraine, adjacent though galore of its fighters person been drawn from prisons, lured with the committedness of state for frontline service. They were heavy progressive successful Russia's seizure of the metropolis of Bakhmut, for instance.

Russia claims the rebellion has had nary interaction connected its Ukraine run truthful far.

However, Russian forces volition nary uncertainty person heard what's been going connected and the quality whitethorn beryllium demoralising. Some suggest determination could beryllium in-fighting betwixt rival units successful the days to come, depending connected what benignant of aftershocks determination are backmost successful Russia pursuing Saturday's events.

In Ukraine, successful summation to a interest implicit risks that Russia whitethorn escalate its involvement, subject leaders volition beryllium searching for opportunities from the instability crossed the border.

Kyiv's forces person launched a counter-offensive to reclaim territories captures by the occupiers and judge that unrest successful Russia offers a "window of opportunity".

A erstwhile US ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, told the BBC Ukrainian forces were successful "a bully position" to exploit tactical weaknesses exposed by the abrupt question of Wagner fighters.

While Prigozhin's mutiny appeared to drawback the Kremlin disconnected guard, US spy agencies had already picked up signs helium was readying to enactment and had briefed President Joe Biden on with cardinal legislature leaders earlier this week, US media report.

US quality spotted that the mercenary radical person was massing weapons, ammunition and different instrumentality adjacent the borderline with Russia, CNN reported.

According to the New York Times, President Biden spoke with the leaders of France, Germany and the UK due to the fact that of concerns that Mr Putin's power of Russia's immense atomic weapons arsenal could gaffe amid the chaos.

US spy chiefs had been tracking the deteriorating narration betwixt Prigozhin and Russian defence officials for months and quality had concluded it was a motion the warfare successful Ukraine was going severely for some Wagner and the regular military, the insubstantial says.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post says the US whitethorn person picked up that Prigozhin was readying thing arsenic aboriginal arsenic mid-June.

A cardinal trigger was a decree connected 10 June by Russia's defence ministry ordering each unpaid detachments - similar the Wagner Group - to motion contracts with the government, which would efficaciously beryllium a takeover of Prigozhin's mercenary troops.

Officials told the insubstantial "there were capable signals to beryllium capable to archer the enactment … that thing was up" - but the nonstop quality of Prigozhin's plans weren't wide until soon earlier the mutiny began.

President Putin was besides told by his ain quality that Prigozhin was plotting something, the insubstantial reported. It is not wide precisely erstwhile helium was told that, but it was "definitely much than 24 hours ago", the insubstantial quoted a US authoritative arsenic saying connected Saturday.

Mr Putin's code the federation arsenic the situation was unfolding is being seen arsenic a motion of however earnestly helium viewed the menace and the request to asseverate himself to the Russian public.

"Many wrong the elite volition personally blasted Putin for the information that everything went truthful acold and that determination was nary due absorption from the president successful bully time," a starring Russia expert Tatiana Stanovaya wrote connected Telegram. "Therefore, this full communicative is besides a stroke to Putin's positions."

While it is hard to gully conclusions astir wide Russian nationalist opinion, the country's leaders would person been acrophobic by the show of civilian onlookers applauding Wagner units successful the metropolis of Rostov.

As Wagner troops near the metropolis they had efficaciously taken power of during their rebellion, they were greeted by an seemingly supportive assemblage who cheered, clapped and took photos.

However it is worthy noting that immoderate residents had seemingly rushed to permission the metropolis by bid connected Saturday aft Wagner arrived.