Where next for Iran now that its 'Axis of Resistance' is shattered?

Amid the shattered solid and trampled flags, posters of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei prevarication ripped connected the level of the Iranian embassy successful Damascus. There are torn pictures excessively of the erstwhile person of Lebanon's Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed successful an Israeli aerial onslaught successful Beirut successful September.

Outside, the ornate turquoise tiles connected the embassy's façade are intact, but the defaced elephantine representation of Iran's vastly influential erstwhile subject Revolutionary Guards commandant Qasem Soleimani - killed connected the orders of Donald Trump during his archetypal presidency - is simply a further reminder of the bid of blows Iran has faced, culminating connected Sunday successful the autumn of a cardinal ally, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

So, arsenic the Islamic Republic licks its wounds, and prepares for a caller Donald Trump presidency, volition it determine connected a much hardline attack - oregon volition it renew negotiations with the West? And conscionable however unchangeable is the regime?

In his archetypal code aft the toppling of Assad, Khamenei was putting a brave look connected a strategical defeat. Now 85 years old, helium faces the looming situation of succession, having been successful powerfulness and the eventual authorization successful Iran since 1989.

"Iran is beardown and almighty – and volition go adjacent stronger," helium claimed.

He insisted that the Iran-led confederation successful the Middle East, which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and Iraqi Shia militias – the "scope of resistance" against Israel - would lone fortify too.

"The much unit you exert, the stronger the absorption becomes. The much crimes you commit, the much determined it becomes. The much you combat against it, the much it expands," helium said.

But the determination aftershocks of the Hamas massacres successful Israel connected 7 October 2023 – which were applauded, if not supported, by Iran – person near the authorities reeling.

Israel's retaliation against its enemies has created a caller scenery successful the Middle East, with Iran precise overmuch connected the backmost foot.

"All the dominoes person been falling," says James Jeffrey, a erstwhile US diplomat and lawman nationalist information advisor, who present works astatine the non-partisan Wilson Center think-tank.

"The Iranian Axis of Resistance has been smashed by Israel, and present blown up by events successful Syria. Iran is near with nary existent proxy successful the portion different than the Houthis successful Yemen."

Iran does inactive backmost almighty militias successful neighbouring Iraq. But according to Mr Jeffrey: "This is simply a wholly unprecedented illness of a determination hegemon."

The past nationalist sighting of Assad was successful a gathering with the Iranian Foreign Minister, connected 1 December, erstwhile helium vowed to "crush" the rebels advancing connected the Syrian capital. The Kremlin has said helium is present successful Russia aft fleeing the country.

Iran's ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, described Assad arsenic the "front extremity of the Axis of Resistance". Yet, erstwhile the extremity came for Bashar al-Assad, a weakened Iran – shocked by the abrupt illness of his forces – was incapable and unwilling to combat for him.

In a substance of days, the lone different authorities successful the "Axis of Resistance" - its lynchpin - had gone.

Iran had spent decades gathering its web of militias to support power successful the region, arsenic good arsenic deterrence against Israeli attack. This dates backmost to the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

In the warfare with Iraq that followed, Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafez, supported Iran.

The confederation betwixt the Shia clerics successful Iran and the Assads (who are from the number Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam) helped cement Iran's powerbase successful a predominantly Sunni Middle East.

Syria was besides a important proviso way for Iran to its state successful Lebanon, Hezbollah, and different determination equipped groups.

Iran had travel to Assad's assistance before. When helium appeared susceptible aft a fashionable uprising successful 2011 had morphed into a civilian war, Tehran provided fighters, substance and weapons. More than 2,000 Iranian soldiers and generals were killed determination portion ostensibly serving arsenic "military advisers".

"We cognize that Iran spent $30bn to $50bn [£23.5bn to £39bn] successful Syria [since astir 2011]," says Dr Sanam Vakil, manager of the Middle East and North Africa programme astatine deliberation vessel Chatham House.

Now the pipeline done which Iran mightiness person tried, successful the future, to resupply Hezbollah successful Lebanon – and from there, potentially, others – has been cut.

"The Axis of Resistance was an opportunistic web designed to supply Iran with strategical extent and support Iran from nonstop onslaught and attack," Dr Vakil argues. "This has intelligibly failed arsenic a strategy."

Iran's calculation of what to bash adjacent volition beryllium affected not conscionable by the demise of Assad but besides by the information that its ain subject came disconnected acold worse than Israel successful the archetypal ever nonstop confrontations betwixt the 2 countries earlier this year.

Most of the ballistic missiles that Iran launched astatine Israel successful October were intercepted, though immoderate caused harm to respective airbases. Israeli strikes caused superior harm to Iran's aerial defences and rocket accumulation capabilities. "The rocket menace has proven to beryllium a insubstantial tiger," says Mr Jeffrey.

The assassination successful Tehran of the erstwhile Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, successful July was besides a profound embarrassment for Iran.

The main precedence of the Islamic Republic from present connected successful is its ain survival. "It volition beryllium looking to reposition itself, reenforce what's near of the Axis of Resistance and re-invest successful determination ties successful bid to past the unit that Trump is apt to bear," says Dr Vakil.

Dennis Horak spent 3 years successful Iran arsenic Canadian complaint d'affaires. "It's a beauteous resilient authorities with tremendous levers of power, and a batch much they could unleash," helium says.

It inactive possesses superior firepower, helium argues, which could beryllium utilized against Gulf Arab countries successful the lawsuit of a confrontation with Israel. He cautions against immoderate presumption of Iran arsenic a insubstantial tiger.

It has however, been profoundly weakened internationally – with an unpredictable Donald Trump astir to presume the presidency successful the US, and Israel having demonstrated its quality to prime disconnected its enemies.

"Iran volition surely beryllium re-evaluating its defence doctrine which was chiefly reliant connected the Axis of Resistance," says Dr Vakil.

"It volition besides beryllium considering its atomic programme and trying to determine if greater concern successful that is indispensable to supply the authorities with greater security."

Iran insists that its atomic programme is wholly peaceful. But it has precocious considerably since Donald Trump abandoned a carefully-negotiated woody struck successful 2015, which constricted its atomic activities successful instrumentality for the lifting of immoderate economical sanctions.

Under the agreement, Iran was permitted to enrich uranium up to a purity of 3.67%. Low-enriched uranium tin beryllium utilized to nutrient substance for commercialized atomic powerfulness plants. The UN's atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, says Iran is present importantly expanding the complaint astatine which it tin nutrient uranium enriched to 60%.

Iran has said it is doing this successful retaliation for the sanctions that Trump reinstated and which remained successful spot arsenic the Biden medication tried and failed to revive the deal.

Weapons-grade uranium, which is needed for a atomic bomb, is 90% enriched oregon more.

The IAEA head, Rafael Grossi, has suggested what Iran is doing whitethorn beryllium a effect to the country's determination setbacks.

"It's a truly concerning picture," says Darya Dolzikova, adept connected atomic proliferation astatine the Royal United Services Institute deliberation tank. "The atomic programme is successful a wholly antithetic spot to wherever it was successful 2015."

It has been estimated that Iran could present enrich capable uranium for a limb wrong astir a week, if it decided to, though it would besides request to conception a warhead and equine a transportation system, which experts accidental would instrumentality months oregon perchance arsenic agelong arsenic a year.

"We don't cognize however adjacent they are to a deliverable atomic weapon. But Iran has gained a batch of cognition that volition beryllium truly hard to rotation back," adds Ms Dolzikova.

Western countries are alarmed.

"It's wide that Trump volition effort to re-impose his 'maximum pressure' strategy connected Iran," says Dr Raz Zimmt, elder researcher astatine the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies and Tel Aviv University.

"But I deliberation he'll besides effort to prosecute Iran successful renewed negotiations trying to person Iran to rotation backmost its atomic capabilities."

Despite Israel premier curate Benjamin Netanyahu's stated tendency for authorities change, Dr Zimmt believes the state volition bide its time, waiting to spot what Donald Trump does and however Iran responds.

Iran is improbable to privation to provoke a full-scale confrontation.

"I deliberation Donald Trump – arsenic a businessman – volition effort to prosecute Iran and marque a deal," says Nasser Hadian, prof of governmental subject astatine Tehran University.

"If that doesn't happen, he'll spell for maximum unit successful bid to bring it to the table."

He believes a woody is much apt than conflict, but helium adds: "There is simply a anticipation that, if helium goes for maximum pressure, things spell incorrect and we get a warfare that neither broadside wants."

The Islamic Republic faces a big of home challenges too, arsenic it prepares for the succession of the Supreme Leader.

"Khamenei goes to furniture worrying astir his bequest and modulation and is looking to permission Iran successful a unchangeable place," according to Dr Vakil.

The authorities was severely shaken by the 2022 nationwide protests that followed the decease of a young woman, Mahsa Jina Amini, who had been accused of not wearing the hijab properly.

The uprising challenged the legitimacy of the clerical constitution and was crushed with brutal force.

There is inactive widespread, simmering fury astatine a authorities that has poured resources into conflicts overseas portion galore Iranians look unemployment and conflict with precocious inflation.

And Iran's younger generation, successful particular, is progressively estranged from the Islamic Revolution, with galore chafing astatine the societal restrictions imposed by the regime. Every day, women inactive defy the regime, risking apprehension by going retired without their hairsbreadth covered.

However, that's not to accidental that determination volition beryllium a illness of the authorities akin to that successful Syria, accidental Iran watchers.

"I don't deliberation the Iranian radical are going to emergence up again due to the fact that Iran has mislaid its empire, which was precise unpopular anyway," says Mr Jeffrey.

Mr Horak believes its tolerance of dissent volition beryllium lowered inactive further arsenic it tries to enactment up its interior security. A long-planned caller instrumentality that strengthens punishments for women who bash not deterioration the hijab is owed to travel successful imminently. But helium doesn't judge the authorities is presently astatine risk. "Millions of Iranians don't enactment it, but millions inactive do," helium says. "I don't deliberation it's successful information of toppling anytime soon."

But arsenic it navigates choler astatine home, the nonaccomplishment of its lynchpin successful Syria – aft truthful galore different blows to its determination clout – has made the occupation of Iran's rulers a batch much tricky.