Which teams are most, least analytics-advanced? We surveyed 21 team staffers

The Cleveland Browns are inactive the astir analytically precocious enactment successful the NFL, according to an ESPN canvass of analytics staffers astir the league.

The Browns took the mantle from the Baltimore Ravens successful 2021 and kept it this play aft receiving a plurality of votes, though their borderline is smaller than a twelvemonth ago. The Browns were voted arsenic the astir analytically precocious squad by staffers from 10 of 21 teams this twelvemonth aft receiving 17 of 22 votes successful 2021.

This is the 3rd twelvemonth we've surveyed NFL teams' analytics groups to amended recognize the scenery of quantitative investigation successful the league and get their opinions connected questions facing teams. Some questions person remained consistent, and immoderate are new. (Check retired the 2021 and 2020 versions.)

The survey was sent to a subordinate of each team's analytics group, and 21 responded. Survey recipients were permitted to collaborate with different members of their analytics radical arsenic agelong arsenic they submitted lone 1 ballot per team. Some staffers near comments, and others were called by ESPN for contextual follow-ups. Participants were allowed to measurement successful connected accusation astir their ain squad successful some, but not all, of the questions (designated below). All were granted anonymity truthful they could talk freely, and though determination were 21 responses, immoderate abstained from immoderate questions.

Survey responses took spot betwixt August and November.

Jump to:
Most advanced | Least advanced
Most/least hard positions to evaluate
Does momentum really exist?
Underrated players | Overrated players

Which NFL squad is the astir analytically advanced?

Voting for your ain squad was permitted for these archetypal 3 questions.

1. Cleveland Browns (10)
2. Baltimore Ravens (4)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (3)
T-4. Atlanta Falcons (1)
T-4. Buffalo Bills (1)
T-4. Houston Texans (1)
T-4. Minnesota Vikings (1)

Which squad produces the highest level of analytics work?

1. Cleveland Browns (7)
2. Baltimore Ravens (4)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (3)
T-4. Atlanta Falcons (1)
T-4. Buffalo Bills (1)
T-4. Dallas Cowboys (1)
T-4. Houston Texans (1)
T-4. Jacksonville Jaguars (1)
T-4. Los Angeles Rams (1)
T-4. Miami Dolphins (1)

Which squad astir incorporates analytics into its decision-making?

1. Cleveland Browns (9)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (3)
T-3. Baltimore Ravens (2)
T-3. Indianapolis Colts (2)
T-5. Arizona Cardinals (1)
T-5. Atlanta Falcons (1)
T-5. Buffalo Bills (1)
T-5. Los Angeles Chargers (1)
T-5. Minnesota Vikings (1)

The Browns swept the 3 categories again. The astir analytically precocious question is framed arsenic a operation of the different two: the level of analytics enactment a squad produces and however good it integrates its quantitative investigation into the team's decision-making.

"From what I understand, each their decision-making takes a scouting oregon coaching position and past marries that with immoderate benignant of quantitative investigation oregon quantitative investigation," an NFC analytics staffer said.

"[The Browns] person an analytically-minded GM -- they person enactment each the way, manager level and above, who is quantitatively-inclined," an AFC staffer said, referencing Cleveland wide manager Andrew Berry, who came up successful scouting but is believed to clasp a data-centric approach.

Which teams are among the apical 5 astir analytically inclined?

Baltimore Ravens (21), Cleveland Browns (19), Philadelphia Eagles (16), Buffalo Bills (8), Minnesota Vikings (7), Los Angeles Chargers (5), Los Angeles Rams (4), Denver Broncos (3), Indianapolis Colts (3), New York Giants (3), San Francisco 49ers (3), Dallas Cowboys (2), Green Bay Packers (2), Houston Texans (2), Miami Dolphins (2), Arizona Cardinals (1), Atlanta Falcons (1), Chicago Bears (1), Jacksonville Jaguars (1), Kansas City Chiefs (1), Las Vegas Raiders (1)

One elector selected six teams.

After the Browns, we spot a wide tier of 2 close down them -- the Ravens and Eagles, arsenic has been the lawsuit the past fewer seasons. Both teams person ample analytics staffs.

One analytics advisor highlighted the Ravens (along with the Colts) arsenic being leaders successful the coaching broadside of analytics and cited violative adjunct Daniel Stern -- a erstwhile shot probe manager who assists with crippled absorption -- being portion of the coaching unit arsenic evidence.

The Ravens look to beryllium 1 of the astir analytically inclined crippled absorption teams nether John Harbaugh.

"You continuously spot Baltimore marque analytically dependable decisions," 1 survey-taker wrote.

One responsive cited organizations oregon enactment which item their quantitative analysts, calling retired the Ravens and Rams, specifically.

"If the squad is consenting to springiness a nationalist shoutout to their (analytics) team, they truly bash worth their people," they said.

The aforesaid staffer said the Ravens are usually aligned with statement sentiment successful the draft, different indicator of their quantitative-leaning mindset.

The Eagles are annually thought of arsenic 1 of the astir analytically-inclined organizations. They received notoriety for their 2017 Super Bowl tally which was successful portion fueled by analytically-driven crippled absorption decisions, but adjacent aft the Doug Pederson epoch the estimation has sustained.

That aforesaid staffer thought the promotions of Alec Halaby and Jon Ferrari to adjunct GM were indicators of a data-driven attack successful Philadelphia. Halaby is simply a long-time Eagles analytics staffer and was vice president of shot operations and strategy anterior to becoming adjunct GM. While Ferrari doesn't person the aforesaid analytics titles, the staffer successful question said, "when I deliberation analytics that's conscionable evidenced-based decision-making right? (Ferrari's) not needfully considered an 'analytics' guy, but he's very, precise sharp."

The Bills received the fourth-most top-5 votes similar past year, but the Vikings and Chargers some moved up. The reasons are reasonably obvious: Chargers manager Brandon Staley was acold much inclined to spell for it connected 4th down than astir coaches successful 2021, though helium has importantly slowed down successful 2022. And the Vikings hired Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the archetypal GM to person acquisition arsenic an analytics staffer.

"Incorporation of analytics lags down enactment quality, truthful Minnesota has a large vantage conscionable due to the fact that they are truthful bought in," wrote 1 survey-taker.

Which NFL squad is the slightest analytically advanced?

Tennessee Titans (7), Washington Commanders (5), Chicago Bears (2), New Orleans Saints (2), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2), Detroit Lions (1), Pittsburgh Steelers (1)

One elector abstained.

In this category, staffers often ballot based connected what they don't hear.

"I don't cognize overmuch astir (the Commanders and Titans)," 1 staffer said. Which is benignant of the constituent -- analytics staffers often cognize each different and talk, the aforesaid mode coaches cognize coaches and scouts cognize scouts.

That Tennessee and Washington person tiny analytics groups -- conscionable 1 staffer each, to the champion of my cognition -- and their enactment isn't good known to their peers is simply a antagonistic indicator. It doesn't regularisation retired heavier quantitative engagement that isn't known to the outside, but erstwhile asked which teams are further down from a information investigation standpoint, those 2 teams are consistently brought up.

Does momentum beryllium wrong an NFL game?

Yes (15)
No (5)

One elector abstained.

Analytically-inclined radical person often dismissed the thought of momentum, truthful it was astonishing to spot three-quarters of respondents judge successful its existence.

"I americium alert that I person nary mode to beryllium it," said a seasoned analytics staffer that voted yes. "I've built the triumph probability models, erstwhile you look backmost astatine however you got to a spot it doesn't substance astatine all, I'm alert of each that. It's benignant of similar maine taking disconnected my statistician hat, putting connected my shot hat, I consciousness similar you tin consciousness it.

"Just due to the fact that we can't measurement it, oregon we aren't susceptible of measuring it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist."

Several radical noted that they felt that portion momentum mightiness beryllium real, the effect is yet small.

"Momentum and blistery hands bash exist, but you tin marque wealth by betting against them," wrote 1 survey-taker. "So my reply isn't virtually no, it tin adjacent impact definite players differently. But yes, momentum is inactive overrated and utilized retroactively arsenic portion of a communicative wherever it sounds bully but yet is manus waving."

If momentum does exist, the question becomes: Does it oregon should it impact decision-making wrong a game?

"Yes, but my occupation is to not dainty it arsenic if it exists," said 1 staffer, who is connected the coaching headset during games.

Another, who besides felt momentum is real, felt differently. "Is it thing tangibly usable? I don't deliberation so."

A 3rd felt that momentum exists and should impact decision-making, but is often misused by coaches. They gave an illustration of a squad moving the shot good and reaching tract extremity range, with the defence connected its heels and getting tired.

"Take vantage of that edge!" the staffer said. "But it's much similar they termination their ain momentum by saying we're successful tract extremity range, nary antagonistic yards, don't instrumentality immoderate large sacks, propulsion the shot away. You extremity up with a midrange tract goal, wherever you should person pressed the accelerator and scored."

Which presumption is the astir hard to measure quantitatively?

Safety (8)
Cornerback (5)
Offensive Line (5)
Quarterback (2)

One elector abstained.

Defensive backs dominated this question, with information taking the apical spot.

"A batch of what you're really trying to measurement with safeties are things that don't hap arsenic a effect of them," an AFC staffer said. "It's pugnacious to measurement a counterfactual.

"Scouts volition accidental the aforesaid thing. There's truthful galore plays astatine information wherever thing happens and they person minimal impact."

One survey taker who selected violative enactment felt determination was thing genuinely nonsubjective to measurement idiosyncratic linemen.

"People are trying present to get amended astatine the nonsubjective with subordinate tracking data, but I don't deliberation that's determination yet," the staffer said, noting that however 1 measures an O-lineman's show utilizing that tracking information was subjective.

Both survey takers who selected backmost felt similar the discourse astir the presumption was important successful its evaluation, making the process much difficult.

"The worth that a backmost contributes to a crippled is truthful heavy babelike connected the different 21 players connected the field," an NFC staffer said.

"You person the astir accusation connected quarterback, but it's hard to isolate the accomplishment of the backmost extracurricular of the strategy he's operating in," the different backmost elector added, besides noting that the deed complaint connected QBs is little than different positions, arsenic well.

Which presumption is the easiest to measure quantitatively?

Edge (6)
Running Back (6)
Wide Receiver (4)
Quarterback (2)
Cornerback (1)
Linebacker (1)

One elector abstained.

Edge rushers and moving backs led the mode successful presumption of easiness to evaluate. As 1 staffer enactment it regarding Edge defenders -- their responsibilities are precise clear..

"They're rushing the passer, truthful you tin measure if they are creating unit oregon beating blocks and successful the tally crippled it's benignant of the aforesaid thing: Are they getting disconnected blocks, are they getting to the ball? For astir borderline players, that's it," they said.

An NFC staffer who selected wide receiver noted receivers' show with the shot oregon erstwhile receiving targets is reasonably casual to measurement but added determination is inactive country for improvement erstwhile quantifying receivers' off-ball work.

Does your squad person an analytics staffer connected a coaching headset during games?

Yes (13)
No (8)

This is simply a somewhat little ratio than past twelvemonth (when the divided was 15-6), which could beryllium a effect of changing regimes but much apt is antithetic teams responding this twelvemonth compared to last.

As a follow-up, I asked: What quality does it marque having an analytics staffer connected headset to assistance with crippled management, arsenic opposed to idiosyncratic else?

"You privation to get arsenic overmuch of the crippled absorption worldly (prepared) pregame arsenic possible," said 1 survey-taker. "But each crippled there's going to beryllium situations that travel up that we didn't person a pregame program for. And conscionable having idiosyncratic that tin mentally deliberation analytically astatine that infinitesimal has a batch of value."

"That sermon betwixt coaches and analytics staffer is much businesslike if your analytics staffer (is the one) communicating accusation they cognize astir intimately," different added.

A 3rd felt it doesn't person to beryllium an analytics staffer connected headset, but astatine slightest idiosyncratic profoundly acquainted with the quantitative broadside of crippled management.

"Having a manager who has a afloat knowing of the analytics is conscionable arsenic good, but astatine that constituent I deliberation we're conscionable messing astir with titles," they said.

When your squad makes a determination you disagree with, which country is that astir apt to hap in?

Positional worth (7)
Trade worth (3)
Game strategy (e.g. playcalling, scheme) (3)
Pro subordinate valuation (3)
College subordinate valuation (1)
Game absorption (e.g. 4th down, 2-point) (0)

Four voters abstained.

One elector who selected positional worth was not amazed to perceive it was the astir communal response. But they couldn't rather enactment their digit connected why, and said that was benignant of the point. If they understood wherefore they weren't capable to align with decision-makers connected positional value, it astir apt wouldn't beryllium a taxable of predominant disagreement.

Running backs are the astir evident illustration of a position-value disconnect.

"The full thought of the first-round moving back, the large declaration to the moving back. People spot the accumulation coming from the moving backs and springiness it to the backmost erstwhile helium mightiness not merit the credit," they said.

Though moving backs' marketplace values person dropped crossed the league, quantitative analysts inactive spot the presumption arsenic overvalued.

Asked for a presumption that was undervalued by traditionalists, the staffer said safety, pointing to the 2021 Bills defence that was ascendant successful ample portion due to the fact that of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.

One survey-taker who selected crippled strategy said it was hard making in-roads with the coaching staff.

"We'll get much buy-in from our unit section and our beforehand bureau arsenic acold arsenic being open-minded to probe that we tin provide," they said.

Another staffer who chose pro unit valuation said players astatine the bottommost of the roster were harder to evaluate.

"I mightiness not hold (with the decision), but I person capable respect to recognize I'm incorrect a batch erstwhile it comes to pro players, particularly down connected the roster -- 45th done 53rd antheral I don't person immoderate information connected those players playing successful the NFL."

Name a subordinate you judge to beryllium mostly underrated, based connected your quantitatively-informed opinion?

Excluding players from your ain team.

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins (2), Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (2), Titans DT Jeffery Simmons (2), Cowboys P Bryan Anger, Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne, Chargers CB Bryce Callahan, Jets TE Tyler Conklin, Bills OT Dion Dawkins, Broncos WR Tim Patrick, Vikings DE Harrison Phillips, Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Falcons CB A.J. Terrell, Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen

Five voters abstained.

Despite the plethora of voting options, it was notable that 3 players received much than 1 selection. In this conception much than any, it's important to enactment that the responses came successful implicit a ample scope of clip -- from earlier the play to aboriginal November.

"Cousins astir apt isn't the astir undervalued controlling for his position, but helium astir apt generates the astir worth compared to however overmuch radical deliberation helium does. He's easy a well-above-average QB," 1 survey-taker wrote anterior to the season.

"Jeffery Simmons is proving it present too, he's proving each those guys right. That's a bully one," said 1 elector upon proceeding the wide results. "Tyler Lockett, helium gets truthful overmuch recognition from the analytics assemblage that I consciousness similar he's wherever helium should be, but I get it from the non-analytics community; that makes sense."

Both Simmons and Lockett are putting up superior numbers this season. Simmons has 6.5 sacks connected the twelvemonth and ranks 3rd successful tally halt triumph rate. Lockett, entering Week 13, ranked 4th among each wide receivers and choky ends successful Receiver Tracking Metrics' Overall Score.

Multiple survey-takers mentioned however amazed they were that Callahan didn't make much involvement successful the offseason, erstwhile helium signed a one-year, $1.3 cardinal woody with the Chargers.

"The past mates of years his sum grades, his separation, his tackling person each been truly good. I deliberation the nickelback is inactive a spot undervalued," said the staffer that voted for him.

"No 1 seems funny successful him adjacent though helium seems to ever play well? He besides gets wounded a lot," said another.

Name a subordinate you judge to beryllium mostly overrated, based connected your quantitatively-informed opinion.

Excluding players from your ain team.

Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs (2), Broncos QB Russell Wilson (2), Raiders QB Derek Carr, Cardinals RB James Conner, Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott, Steelers S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Titans RB Derrick Henry, Chargers S Derwin James Jr., Texans QB Davis Mills, Colts G Quenton Nelson, Steelers OLB T.J. Watt, Commanders DE Chase Young

Six voters abstained.

Perhaps it's unsurprising to spot Diggs person aggregate votes successful this category, considering his worth has been the taxable of important statement aft his notable 2021 run successful which helium recorded 11 picks but the remainder of his crippled was questioned. That was the crux of the effect from 1 survey taker, who said picks tin surely marque up for allowed yards but that those interceptions past twelvemonth inflated cognition of his performance.

As for Wilson, helium received 1 ballot anterior to the play and 1 good into his disappointing 2022 campaign. Wilson has a QBR of 35.0 this season, 28th retired of 31 qualifying quarterbacks.

The staffer who selected Fitzpatrick compared him to Seahawks information Jamal Adams.

"He's amended than Adams but I consciousness similar Fitzpatrick is conscionable precise chaotic. He has a batch of large flash plays, but I deliberation he's retired of presumption and making mistakes excessively much. I deliberation his grades are ever ... a batch little than what the scouts are saying astir him," a staffer said, referencing their team's in-house quantitative grades.

The elector who selected Young referenced Browns borderline rusher Jadeveon Clowney arsenic a comparison.

"Incredible athlete, helium conscionable hasn't produced to lucifer his quality yet. I've ever had a occupation with radical getting recognition (and being) considered large players earlier they really nutrient and beryllium they are large players," they said.

Upon proceeding immoderate of the different results, 1 staffer was stunned astatine 1 name.

"Wow, Derwin James?! My goodness," they said. "I similar Derwin James. The remainder marque consciousness to me, Derwin James is simply a surprise."