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Week 12 was a "gut it out, conscionable get the W" benignant of week, with each of the apical 4 teams staring down too-close-for-comfort situations successful their respective games.
Because each 4 won ugly, though, not much, if anything, should alteration Tuesday astatine 7 p.m. ET erstwhile the College Football Playoff enactment committee announces its 4th of six rankings. No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 TCU should clasp dependable astatine the apical arsenic the nation's lone remaining undefeated teams.
The No. 5 spot volition beryllium the astir interesting, arsenic one-loss USC and two-loss LSU tin some marque a lawsuit to regenerate Tennessee pursuing the Vols' stunning 63-38 nonaccomplishment to unranked South Carolina connected Saturday night.
Only 1 crippled remains successful the regular play earlier the apical contenders person a accidental to punctuate their résumés with a league title. No Week 13 crippled volition person a greater interaction connected Selection Day than The Game, the yearly rivalry matchup betwixt Ohio State and Michigan, which volition find the victor of the Big Ten's East division.
What the committee reveals Tuesday night, though, volition supply much hints astatine however the radical volition benignant everything retired connected Selection Day. Here's what to look for, on with Adam Rittenberg's lawsuit for USC being ranked higher than LSU and the apical 4 picks of ESPN's assemblage shot reporters.
Who's No. 5?
LSU volition stay the committee's highest-ranked two-loss team, but portion the Tigers were beating up connected UAB 41-10, USC was clinching a spot successful the Pac-12 title crippled with a 48-45 instant classical against crosstown rival No. 16 UCLA. The Bruins present person 3 losses and volition driblet successful the caller rankings, but they should inactive beryllium a CFP apical 25 triumph for USC. According to ESPN's spot of grounds metric, USC is ranked No. 9 and inactive looking up astatine No. 8 LSU.
The enactment committee doesn't look ahead, truthful portion USC inactive has 2 opportunities to impressment the committee successful games against Notre Dame and the Pac-12 championship, the Trojans mightiness not person done capable yet to usurp LSU. USC's champion wins are against Oregon State and UCLA. LSU's champion wins are against Alabama and Ole Miss, which has mislaid 3 of its past four. LSU's 40-13 location nonaccomplishment to Tennessee present looks worse. If USC jumps LSU for that No. 5 spot, the loser of Ohio State-Michigan and Clemson Tigers should beryllium concerned.
Does the loser of The Game truly basal a chance?
The ascent would look much daunting if USC lands the 5th spot Tuesday -- and if TCU happens to leap Michigan to No. 3. The committee determined past week that Georgia separated itself from the remainder of the country, but determination was treatment astir Nos. 2, 3 and 4 earlier the committee yet settled connected the presumption quo. Will TCU's 2nd roadworthy triumph alteration that, adjacent though it wasn't the Frogs' champion performance? If TCU jumps Michigan, it volition enactment much unit connected the Wolverines to triumph Saturday. According to ESPN's analytics, Michigan's nonconference lineup of location games against Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn was the 2nd weakest successful the FBS.
With Tennessee's loss, the Big Ten has the champion accidental to nonstop aggregate teams to the CFP. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Big Ten has a 67% accidental to person aggregate teams, portion the SEC has a 29% chance. The world successful the committee gathering room, though, is that Ohio State would person a amended accidental than Michigan arsenic East Division runner-up due to the fact that of its triumph against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes' triumph against the Irish would person to look amended than immoderate USC does Saturday to its rival due to the fact that if the Trojans tally the array and triumph the Pac-12, that communal hostile volition beryllium a origin successful the debate.
Will Clemson decorativeness its play with 2 Top 25 opponents?
At No. 9, one-loss Clemson is presently stuck down two-loss teams LSU and Alabama. Will Clemson besides beryllium looking up astatine two-loss Tennessee, too?! That would emphatically bespeak Clemson is successful a precarious position. In spot of record, Clemson, astatine No. 7, ranks down No. 6 Tennessee.
Regardless, the Tigers request help, and they could get it Tuesday if four-loss South Carolina sneaks into the CFP apical 25 aft its resounding upset of Tennessee. Of course, that helps lone if Clemson beats its in-state rival Saturday. Clemson's champion triumph presently is against No. 19 Florida State, followed by No. 24 NC State, but the Wolfpack mislaid their 2nd consecutive crippled Saturday astatine Louisville and should driblet retired of the rankings Tuesday.
That leaves No. 13 North Carolina, which volition look Clemson successful the ACC title game.
How acold volition the two-loss Tar Heels tumble aft their embarrassing 21-17 nonaccomplishment to Georgia Tech (5-6)? A triumph for Clemson implicit the Tar Heels won't impressment the committee arsenic overmuch arsenic the opportunities TCU and USC volition person successful their respective league rubric games.
What the committee volition -- and should -- do
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Paul Finebaum discusses USC's way to the playoff aft a triumph implicit UCLA successful Week 12.
The apical 4 teams successful the CFP rankings survived Week 12 contempt facing varying degrees of adversity. The committee isn't apt to shuffle the order, truthful the existent intrigue comes down to No. 5 aft Tennessee's historical nonaccomplishment astatine unranked South Carolina. Other than Georgia, Tennessee seemingly had the astir unafraid way to the CFP until Saturday night. The Vols volition beryllium dropping successful Tuesday night's ranking, but which squad replaces them astatine No. 5? That leads to our play debate.
What the CFP enactment committee volition do: Put LSU astatine No. 5 implicit USC
What the CFP enactment committee should do: Put USC astatine No. 5 implicit LSU
The archetypal rankings had USC up of LSU, but the teams flipped aft LSU's melodramatic triumph against Alabama. LSU remained 1 spot up of USC successful past week's rundown and didn't bash thing to wounded its lasting Saturday night, pulling distant from UAB successful the 2nd 4th for a 41-10 victory. The anticipation present is that the committee volition simply driblet Tennessee and determination up LSU and USC, successful that order.
But however should USC beryllium viewed aft its melodramatic 48-45 triumph implicit UCLA astatine the Rose Bowl? The UCLA crippled brought retired the champion successful USC's discourtesy and backmost Caleb Williams, who strengthened his lawsuit successful the Heisman Trophy contention with 470 passing yards. Until Saturday night, USC's illustration had been defined by wins implicit mostly atrocious teams and a respectable roadworthy nonaccomplishment to Utah. The Trojans present person 2 notable roadworthy victories, implicit UCLA and Oregon State, which could participate the committee's apical 20 Tuesday.
To beryllium clear, USC doesn't person a triumph that pops arsenic overmuch arsenic LSU's implicit Alabama. The Trojans' champion opportunities are ahead, against Notre Dame this week and, ideally, Oregon successful the Pac-12 rubric game. But their apical 2 wins occurred connected the road, portion LSU's champion roadworthy victories person travel against Arkansas and Florida, 2 6-5 teams that are nether .500 successful SEC play.
USC's lone loss, to Utah, is rather akin to LSU's 24-23 season-opening setback against Florida State, a three-loss squad that should beryllium slotted astir the aforesaid spot arsenic Utah successful the caller rankings. The lone quality is USC's nonaccomplishment occurred connected the road, portion LSU fell to FSU successful New Orleans, hardly a existent neutral site.
USC besides doesn't person a 2nd loss, particularly not a 27-point setback astatine home, similar LSU endured against Tennessee past month. Of note: Since dismantling LSU successful Death Valley, Tennessee dropped its adjacent 2 roadworthy games by a combined people of 90-51.
LSU's second-best win, a 45-20 triumph implicit Ole Miss connected Oct. 22, besides has been devalued. The Rebels were mostly noncompetitive successful Saturday's nonaccomplishment astatine Arkansas and apt volition beryllium slotted astir Oregon State successful Tuesday's rankings.
A lawsuit tin beryllium made that LSU is much balanced than USC, which hasn't stopped galore offenses erstwhile it isn't taking the shot away. LSU has risen to 20th nationally successful points allowed, portion USC languishes astatine 68th. But USC boasts a akin borderline connected offense, particularly aft Saturday night's magic.
These are comparable teams, but USC present carries the stronger illustration due to the fact that of what has happened connected the roadworthy -- 2 bully wins and a respectable loss. LSU can't rather lucifer that. -- Adam Rittenberg
ESPN reporters' top-four picks
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Chris Low: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. USC
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Dave Wilson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
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