Would you similar a small chalk with your chaos? While the fifth-seeded San Diego Padres and sixth-seeded Philadelphia Phillies are playing successful the NLCS, the American League gives america the 2 teams that carried the speech each play successful the inferior circuit: The 106-56 Houston Astros, playing successful their sixth consecutive ALCS, and the 99-63 New York Yankees, returning to the ALCS for the archetypal clip since 2019.
This is what we've been waiting for each season, particularly aft Yankees wide manager Brian Cashman and Astros proprietor Jim Crane got into a small wrangling of words backmost successful the outpouring erstwhile Cashman whined that the Yankees hadn't reached immoderate World Series due to the fact that of the Astros' cheating. Of course, the Yankees failed to bushed the Astros successful the 2017 and 2019 ALCS -- not truthful overmuch due to the fact that of Houston's hitting, but their ain deficiency of it: They deed .205 and scored 22 runs successful 7 games successful 2017 and .214 with 21 runs successful six games successful 2019. This Houston squad is arguably amended and deeper than those 2 the Yankees faced.
The Houston lineup, however, is not arsenic deep, relying chiefly connected the large four: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. The Yankees deed conscionable .182 successful their five-game bid triumph implicit Cleveland but deed 9 location runs, including 2 apiece from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, positive 3 from Harrison Bader. Judge and Stanton besides went conscionable 6-for-36 with 17 strikeouts -- but if they swat a fewer implicit the fence, this bid has a accidental to spell the distance, contempt Houston's wide vantage connected the mound.
Also of note: The condensed playoff docket means the best-of-seven bid volition beryllium played implicit 8 days alternatively than the accustomed nine, with an disconnected time aft lone Game 2. That volition enactment a small added unit connected the pitching staffs and possibly unit the managers to excavation a small deeper than accustomed into their starting rotations.
Ahead of Game 1, David Schoenfield takes a look astatine each squad and our ESPN experts marque their picks.
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New York Yankees
Why they tin determination on: They deed location runs. The Yankees led the American League with 254 location runs, 40 much than the No. 2 squad -- which conscionable happened to beryllium the Astros with 214. And conjecture who was 1 and 2 successful the AL successful preventing location runs? The Astros (134) and Yankees (157). Of course, hitting much location runs isn't a fastener for anything, though that's usually however teams triumph successful the postseason. The Yankees outhomered the Astros 6 to 4 successful the 2017 ALCS, and the Astros won successful 7 games successful a pitching-dominated series. The Yankees outhomered the Astros 10 to 8 successful the 2019 ALCS successful different pitching-dominated bid -- and the Astros won successful six games.
Why they mightiness not: The bullpen is simply a small shaky, arsenic seen successful blowing a pb successful Game 3 against Cleveland. Clay Holmes wasn't the pitcher successful the 2nd fractional that helium was successful an All-Star archetypal half. Aaron Boone didn't usage him to adjacent it retired (there were mixed messages connected his availability), and rookie Clarke Schmidt allowed the game-winning hit. Aside from Wandy Peralta, Holmes and Schmidt, adjacent successful enactment successful presumption of leverage are Lou Trivino (4.53 ERA connected the season, though 1.66 successful 21 2/3 innings with the Yankees) and Jonathan Loaisiga (4.13 ERA). This is simply a bullpen that lacks the extent and the axenic worldly of the Houston bullpen.
Who's hot: Gerrit Cole won some his starts successful the ALDS, allowing 3 runs implicit 13 1/3 innings. He did let 1 location tally successful each commencement and has present allowed astatine slightest 1 successful 10 consecutive starts going backmost to the regular season. After starting connected Sunday, Cole's adjacent commencement successful the ALCS mightiness not travel until Saturday successful Game 3, though possibly Boone pushes him up starting connected Thursday successful Game 2 connected 3 days of rest. In fact, that's a precise apt option, due to the fact that for Cole to get 2 starts successful this series, he's going to person commencement connected abbreviated remainder astatine slightest once. Since the last 5 games of the bid are scheduled implicit 5 days, if helium starts Game 3, helium would past person to commencement Game 7 connected abbreviated rest.
Who's not: Judge deed 2 location runs successful the five-game series, but helium besides struck retired 11 times, drafting conscionable 1 walk. It wasn't a substance of him chasing retired of the portion -- his pursuit complaint was 22.9% successful the regular season, 20.8% against Cleveland -- conscionable a small much swinging and missing: 29.8% successful the regular season, 41.3% against the Guardians.
How's the defense? This is simply a weird one. The Yankees led the majors successful antiaircraft runs saved during the regular play astatine +129 (and ranked 4th successful eventual portion rating). They did necktie with the Astros for the second-lowest batting mean allowed connected balls successful play astatine .268, and that was mostly without Bader, the speedy halfway fielder that lone played 14 regular-season games. On the different hand, the defence didn't precisely play astatine that level against Cleveland. Boone benched light-hitting shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa (a precise bully defender via DRS, but unspeakable scope via Statcast) for rookie Oswaldo Cabrera the last 2 games, adjacent though Cabrera is beauteous intelligibly a antiaircraft liability. The large strengths are Bader and Judge successful the outfield and catcher Jose Trevino, who topped the metrics successful transportation framing.
Final thought: This is the ALCS showdown we've anticipated astir of the regular season, ever since the Yankees separated themselves from the remainder of the AL East successful the archetypal half. However, they've gone conscionable 44-44 from July 2 done the ALDS, and injuries person chopped into the bullpen depth. Houston's unthinkable pitching extent volition beryllium hard to bushed and, similar their erstwhile matchups successful 2017 and 2019, I would expect a low-scoring series. The Yankees are astatine a disadvantage since Cole won't get 2 starts connected afloat rest, though Cole pitched good connected abbreviated remainder against Tampa Bay successful the 2020 ALDS. Unless Judge heats up, this looks similar it volition spell Houston's mode again. -- Schoenfield
Houston Astros
Why they tin determination on: They person the champion pitching extent of the remaining 4 teams. After all, the Astros allowed conscionable 518 runs, the fewest successful a afloat play by an American League nine successful the DH epoch (since 1973). Just look astatine that 18-inning ALDS Game 3 against the Mariners. Dusty Baker churned done six relievers, 1 powerfulness limb aft another. The 5th reliever retired of the pen was Ryne Stanek, who had a 1.15 ERA, and the sixth 1 utilized was Hunter Brown, a rookie with a Justin Verlander-like transportation and worldly who had a 2.55 ERA arsenic a starter successful Triple-A and past allowed 2 runs successful 20 1/3 innings arsenic a late-season call-up. Then the Astros inactive had starter Luis Garcia successful reserve, and helium tossed 5 scoreless innings. The LCS docket means Garcia volition astir apt determination into the rotation, but that's the point: The Astros tin rotation him retired arsenic a No. 5 starter. No squad is amended equipped for the compact LCS docket that much resembles the regular season.
Why they mightiness not: The bottommost of the lineup. The 7-8-9 batters deed .135 (5-for-37) against the Mariners with 15 strikeouts. This is simply a reflector of the regular season, erstwhile Houston's 7-8-9 hitters ranked 24th successful the majors successful OPS. They besides each deed right-handed -- arsenic bash each the seat players, making it casual for opposing managers to lucifer up done the bottommost of the bid and past the apical of the lineup, successful Altuve and Jeremy Pena, with a drawstring of right-handed relievers.
Who's hot: Alvarez did spell 0-for-7 successful that 18-inning game, but helium drove successful 7 runs successful the archetypal 2 ALDS games, including the memorable walk-off location tally successful Game 1 and a go-ahead location tally successful Game 2. What makes him truthful pugnacious -- conscionable inquire the Mariners -- is you can't lucifer up against him with a lefty fixed that Alvarez deed .321 against southpaws. Following a mediocre August erstwhile helium played done a manus injury, he's been reddish hot, including a .355/.440/.677 enactment successful September.
Who's not: Altuve went 0-for-16 against the Mariners with six strikeouts and respective chaotic swings connected pitches retired of the onslaught zone. His pursuit complaint connected pitches retired of the portion was 56.3% -- astir treble his complaint of 28.7% from the regular season. The Mariners fed him a dependable fare of sliders disconnected the sheet and fastballs up and retired of the zone.
How's the defense? Very good. Pena is susceptible of making spectacular plays astatine shortstop, and the Astros are masters astatine positioning, allowing the second-lowest batting mean connected balls successful play successful the regular play astatine .268. Alvarez is simply a small dilatory successful near field, but does person a beardown limb and threw retired a runner astatine location sheet successful the Seattle series.
Final thought: No Dodgers? No Braves? No Mets? Entering the ALCS, the Astros are present overwhelming favorites to triumph it all. If Altuve continues to struggle, however, the lineup becomes adjacent much babelike connected the Alvarez/Bregman/Tucker trio. Remember past year's World Series: Alvarez went 2-for-20, Bregman went 2-for-21 and the Braves upset the Astros. They tin beryllium bushed ... but I wouldn't stake against the Astros astatine this point. -- Schoenfield
Who volition win?
Astros (11 votes), Yankees (1)
Tristan Cockcroft: Astros successful 6
MVP: Alvarez
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: The Astros' pitching extent was the No. 1 crushed that longer remainder periods betwixt bid didn't interaction them to the grade that they did the Dodgers and Braves. If they participate the World Series rested and with their rotation successful bully shape, isn't it a forgone decision that they'll marque speedy enactment of their opponent?
Bradford Doolittle: Astros successful 5
MVP: Bregman
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: While galore person well-founded concerns astir the playoff format and its narration to regular-season integrity, possibly what they should truly beryllium talking astir is wherefore the Astros look to beryllium immune to illustration size-related despair.
Alden Gonzalez: Astros successful 5
MVP: Bregman
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: We'll beryllium having the truly hard treatment astir whether the Astros -- gulp -- are a dynasty.
Eric Karabell: Astros successful 5
MVP: Verlander
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: Another Astros combined no-hitter, but successful the playoffs!
Tim Keown: Astros successful 5
MVP: Tucker
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: How the Astros proceed to enactment region betwixt themselves and the trash-can ungraded with manager Dusty Baker's enactment and the continual improvement of terrific young players.
Tim Kurkjian: Astros successful 7
MVP: Altuve
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: The extent and magnitude of the Houston pitching.
Joon Lee: Yankees successful 6
MVP: Cole
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: That the concerns astir the bullpen were overblown with guys similar Wandy Peralta and Jonathan Loaisiga stepping into the vacancy near by the injuries to Michael King and Scott Effross.
Kiley McDaniel: Astros successful 6
MVP: Alvarez
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: The Astros person been connected an unthinkable bid of postseason runs with this group.
Buster Olney: Astros successful 5
MVP: Bregman
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: How the Astros support winning contempt the changeless changes successful the formed -- from George Springer to Tucker successful the outfield, from erstwhile manager A.J. Hinch to Baker, from Carlos Correa to Pena astatine shortstop. The lone accordant threads look to beryllium Altuve, Verlander, Bregman and proprietor Jim Crane.
Jeff Passan: Astros successful 6
MVP: Alvarez
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: How bully Houston is. Among a lineup that's top-to-bottom tricky, a rotation loaded with endowment and a deep-and-dominant bullpen, the Astros are wide favorites to triumph it each with bully reason.
Jesse Rogers: Astros successful 4
MVP: Tucker
The 1 happening we'll beryllium talking about: The Astros' implicit domination of the postseason volition proceed to thwart immoderate antagonistic thoughts astir the caller playoff system. They got a bye and inactive dominated.
David Schoenfield: Astros successful 5
MVP: Bregman
The 1 happening we'll each beryllium talking about: Houston's unthinkable pitching extent from the No. 1 starter down to the past antheral successful the bullpen.
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