Why are tensions mounting on the Belarus-Poland border?

Poland is sending 10,000 other troops to its borderline with Belarus pursuing an alleged incursion by Belarusian subject helicopters.

Its authorities says they'll assistance to defender against mercenaries from Russia's Wagner radical who person moved to Belarus, and who are present said to beryllium moving towards the border.

Poland's authorities says that connected 1 August, 2 Belarus subject helicopters flew astatine debased altitude astir 2 kilometres into its territory successful the Bialowieza region.

Belarusian equipped forces were conducting exercises successful the borderline country astatine the time.

Its authorities said that determination were "no borderline violations by Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters", and described the accusation arsenic an "old wives' tale".

Residents of Bielowieza person posted photographs connected societal media of a Mi-8 chopper and a Mi-24 chopper with Belarusian markings, which they accidental flew implicit the town.

Poland claims that since 2021 Belarus has been encouraging radical from the Middle East and Africa to question to Belarus and transverse the borderline illegally.

Poland's authorities has called Belarus' strategy "hybrid warfare".

He warned that Wagner fighters successful Belarus could participate Poland posing arsenic migrants, oregon that they could airs arsenic Belarusian borderline guards and assistance much amerciable migrants to cross.

"Being mercenaries, its troops could make disturbances connected the borderline which Russia and Belarus could not beryllium straight blamed for," says Dr Barbara Yoxon, a lecturer successful planetary relations astatine the University of Lancaster.

The borderline betwixt Poland and Lithuania is simply a enactment called the Suwalki Gap.

This 60-mile (95km) portion of onshore is besides the nexus betwixt Belarus and the heavily-fortified Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

Many subject analysts spot the Suwalki spread arsenic a imaginable flashpoint country if determination were to beryllium a struggle betwixt Nato countries and Russia.

The fearfulness is that if Russia, on with Belarus, were to usage subject unit to adjacent this gap, they could chopped disconnected the Baltic republics - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - from their Nato allies successful Europe.

"This is simply a precise constrictive choke-point," says Dr Yoxon. "Russia and Belarus unneurotic would find it casual to artifact Nato from sending reinforcements to support the Baltic states."

Few subject analysts judge that these alleged incursions bespeak that Russia is aiming to onslaught the Baltic republics.

However, says Professor Malcolm Chalmers from the deliberation tank, the Royal United Services Organisation: "It's partially an workout by Russia and Belarus to trial the h2o and spot however Nato mightiness respond, oregon not respond, to incursions into Nato territory."

Russia and Belarus person signed a fig of subject accords successful caller years. Belarus allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine from crossed its border, and is allowing Russia to enactment tactical atomic missiles connected its soil.

Dr Anais Marin from the planetary affairs deliberation tank, Chatham House, says the alleged incursions were astir apt a Russian idea, "to marque definite that Belarus remains an adversary of Poland and Nato, and a steadfast spouse of Moscow's."

Poland's defence ministry says it is sending 10,000 further troops to the Belarus border. It says 4,000 volition straight enactment the Border Guard, and 6,000 volition beryllium held successful reserve.

However, immoderate governmental analysts suggest that Poland's politicians whitethorn beryllium exaggerating the threats from Wagner and Belarus due to the fact that they are facing elections shortly, and privation to amusement that they are pugnacious connected information issues.