Why Arsenal look like a Mourinho team - but must change to win like one

When erstwhile Liverpool and England defender Jamie Carragher suggested Arsenal were morphing into a "Jose Mourinho team" helium meant to compliment the club's antiaircraft resilience and set-piece prowess.

But, intentional oregon not, contained wrong his September critique was a twinge of uncertainty astir the viability of a defence-first mantra successful the modern age.

Three months on, amid accusations of overreliance connected corners and squandered chances, of streamlined attacking tactics and a stodgy midfield, the Mourinho examination feels some progressively apt and unwanted.

Wednesday's triumph implicit rivals Tottenham, acknowledgment successful portion to different 1 of those set-piece goals, near the Gunners 4 points down Premier League leaders Liverpool to support them close successful the hunt.

But, for each the talk, however overmuch person they actually changed this season? Is the examination a just one? And could it assistance them triumph the rubric - conscionable arsenic Mourinho did 3 times astatine Chelsea - oregon volition it hinder their hopes?

This is astatine the precise bosom of those comparisons betwixt Arteta's Arsenal and Mourinho's Chelsea, who were masters of the set-piece goal:

Either way, the header for the existent Arsenal broadside is unavoidable, the information stark: they request a ruthless striker to get implicit their set-piece dependence.

We person known this for a while, but successful the past week the glare of the spotlight has intensified. We person adjacent compiled our ain database of who they could motion successful January here.

Victory successful the northbound London derby could kick-start their 2025 but, having relied upon a set-piece ain extremity and a Leandro Trossard onslaught fortuitously squirming done Spurs keeper Antonin Kinsky, the aforesaid questions remain.

Arsenal person scored 2 goals from 63 shots - with an expected goals (xG) of 7.83 - against Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham.

All 3 games were defined by set-piece chances and large misses, but the clearest illustration was against Newcastle, erstwhile Kai Havertz squandered aureate opportunities while, astatine the different end, Alexander Isak showed the ruthlessness Arsenal lack.

The Gunners missed each six of their 'big chances'. The Magpies scored some of theirs.

It was much of the aforesaid successful the FA Cup nonaccomplishment connected penalties to Manchester United, who had Diogo Dalot sent disconnected successful the 61st minute, aft which Arteta said: "In 1,000 games [like this] you suffer one, and it was this one."

Perhaps that is true, but erstwhile it keeps happening you person to question whether Arsenal deficiency a objective borderline and composure successful cardinal moments, peculiarly erstwhile the cushion of an other extremity is required.

They person been a extremity up successful 5 of their 7 Premier League draws this season. German Havertz, under-scoring against his xG for the 4th clip successful 5 campaigns, is not the subordinate to decorativeness disconnected a game.

So, Arsenal are bully astatine corners and they bash not person Isak. That is not precisely breaking news.

But analysing the underlying information reveals determination is much to Arsenal's problems than meets the eye.

The media absorption connected each those misses against Newcastle and Manchester United has skewed our perceptions of what has truly gone connected this season.

A 1-1 gully with Brighton successful the erstwhile crippled was much successful keeping with the run arsenic a whole: 9 shots connected extremity and an xG of 0.88. The Gunners fertile seventh successful the Premier League for xG this play (36.5), plummeting from 3rd successful 2023-24 (77.5).

Interestingly, Arsenal's changeable number is besides down (17.3 per crippled successful 2023-24, 13.8 successful 2024-25) yet their conversion complaint is up (13.9% to 14.1%).

Maybe the occupation is not astir the fig nine, then, but a deficiency of work provided from midfield.

Certainly the numbers overgarment a representation of a squad struggling to determination the shot done the thirds with the aforesaid fluency arsenic past year:

Martin Odegaard missing 8 Premier League matches is simply a large factor, of course, and arguably the lone important difference.

Since his archetypal commencement pursuing his instrumentality from wounded against Chelsea successful November, the Norwegian has created 42 chances successful each competitions, astir doubly arsenic galore arsenic immoderate different Arsenal subordinate (Declan Rice is adjacent with 23).

Captain Odegaard has created 14 chances successful his past 2 games unsocial (10 against Manchester United and 4 against Tottenham), which is arsenic galore arsenic each of his team-mates combined (14).

Indeed, the Spurs crippled was a emblematic illustration of however everything filters done him - helium had much touches (73) than immoderate different subordinate connected the pitch.

But, whether oregon not Odegaard is fit, Arsenal intelligibly deficiency creativity connected the near broadside of midfield, wherever Mikel Merino oregon Rice play.

Attacking assortment is important to debar predictability, yet Arsenal seldom negociate to carve their hostile unfastened done the mediate of the park, arsenic their assistance representation shows:

It is simply a occupation that has go bigger since Merino's introduction, which has brought much sideways passes and not capable attacking dynamism, successful crook limiting the pathway retired to Gabriel Martinelli oregon Trossard connected the left.

To exemplify that point, Arsenal's progressive passes per 90 minutes person dropped astatine a immense rate, from 55.4 successful 2023-24 to 45.4 successful 2024-25, portion their through-balls are down from 2.74 per 90 minutes to 1.81 per 90 minutes.

It is existent Arteta's transportation concern has not focused connected forwards. But it has not focused capable connected originative fig eights, either.

That has made Arsenal excessively stunted done the mediate and reliant connected playing down the right, done Bukayo Saka, who has been sidelined with a hamstring wounded since December.

Their onslaught locations are progressively lopsided, truthful overmuch truthful that Arsenal present onslaught down the near and done the centre little than anyone other successful the division:

The disappointing third-round FA Cup shootout decision by Manchester United, with Odegaard besides having a punishment saved successful mean clip to enactment his broadside successful front, is simply a bully illustration of wherefore it is simply a problem.

Ruben Amorim's squad were capable to beryllium deep, treble up connected Arsenal's right, and dispersed themselves crossed the width of the transportation without fearfulness of being deed done the centre.

"We didn't person the shot truthful overmuch but we had power without the ball," arsenic Amorim enactment it.

In different words, Arsenal were excessively imbalanced to propulsion isolated a antiaircraft ammunition that was emblematic of the antiaircraft stance opponents follow against them.

Another mates of factors instrumentality out, looping america backmost to those Mourinho comparisons.

When antiaircraft resoluteness and set-piece goals are prioritised, the borderline of mistake becomes razor thin, hence wherefore Odegaard's and Saka's injuries derailed Arsenal's signifier – and wherefore less-than-perfect play astatine some ends of the transportation has outgo them.

Arsenal made 18 errors starring to an absorption changeable past season. They person already equalled that fig (18), explaining wherefore those 1-0 leads bash not transportation Mourinho-esque certainty anymore.

At the different end, it is notable Arsenal topped the charts past play for scoring goals supra their post-shot xG, astatine 15.5. This means Arsenal scored 15.5 much goals than would beryllium 'expected' based connected wherever the changeable was fired onto the goalmouth.

They person not been arsenic fortunate this year, over-scoring the aforesaid metric by conscionable 1.7. Maybe, then, determination is simply a regression to the mean occurring successful onslaught and a gradual slipping of standards astatine the back.

If that is true, past it lone adds value to the wide mentation Arsenal could bash with a poacher up front; idiosyncratic to crook half-chances into cushion goals that would either forgive antiaircraft errors oregon unbend the shoulders capable to debar second-half mistakes altogether.

But that is not the full story. Arsenal's attacking locations request realignment and their cardinal midfield requires an injection of creativity - oregon other they hazard emulating elements of Mourinho's football, but not his success.