Why Georgia’s U.S. Senate race still matters (a lot) - MSNBC

Over the weekend, erstwhile determination was nary longer immoderate uncertainty that Democrats would support their constrictive bulk successful the U.S. Senate, Politico reported connected President Joe Biden’s upbeat temper — and his absorption connected the chamber’s 1 unresolved contest.

After the Senate was called, an upbeat Biden told reporters from a league successful Cambodia that “I consciousness bully and I’m looking guardant to the adjacent mates years.” He said Democrats stay highly motivated to reelect [Georgia Sen. Raphael] Warnock. “It’s ever amended astatine 51” seats, Biden said.

In the contiguous aftermath of Election Day past week, overmuch of the governmental satellite was focused connected the unresolved Senate races and competing scenarios involving Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. If Republicans won 2 of the three, determination would beryllium a GOP bulk successful the precocious enclosure successful the adjacent Congress. If they divided the Arizona and Nevada races, the bulk would travel down to the runoff successful Georgia.

But aft the Arizona and Nevada races were called for the Democratic incumbents, the dynamic changed: The bulk was nary longer wrong scope for the GOP. No substance what happens successful Georgia, Republicans volition beryllium successful the minority.

So, possibly the Georgia runoff isn’t that important anymore? Those making that presumption are making an important mistake.

Take the Senate’s power-sharing agreement, for example. As a applicable matter, Democrats person a functioning bulk successful the Senate due to the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris tin interruption ties, but their bulk is the effect of a compromise woody that was negotiated — slowly — by enactment leaders aboriginal past year.

This statement gives the parties adjacent rank successful committees, and creates procedural dynamics that marque it much hard to beforehand bills and nominations to the floor. Why is simply a bulk “always amended astatine 51,” arsenic Biden enactment it? Because with 51 seats, the power-sharing statement goes away, and Democrats tin govern successful the Senate arsenic a due bulk party.

There’s besides Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to consider: In immoderate instances implicit the past 2 years, the centrist Democrats person balked — astatine times individually — up of cardinal votes. With a 51-seat majority, if either Manchin oregon Sinema balked, enactment leaders could determination guardant anyway.

Similarly, determination person been times successful the existent Congress successful which a subordinate has been absent for wholly morganatic reasons. In those instances, however, Democratic leaders person occasionally had to curtail their plans connected the Senate floor, due to the fact that 49 votes proved insufficient. One much subordinate offers immoderate procedural insurance.

There’s besides the 2024 rhythm to consider: The adjacent circular of elections looks unsmooth for Democrats, and the larger their bulk successful the adjacent Congress, the amended positioned they’ll beryllium for the Congress that follows.

Finally, there’s the question of whether folks successful the large authorities of Georgia privation to beryllium represented by Herschel Walker — who has been credibly accused of being the azygous worst Senate candidate successful caller memory.

The runoff is Dec. 6. Watch this space.