Why is the weather so warm this November?

UK temperatures are "exceptionally mild" for the clip of year, with Scotland and Northern Ireland having the warmest November nighttime connected record.

Average UK night-time temperatures astatine this clip of twelvemonth scope betwixt 4-6C.

Meteorologists accidental the mild upwind is the effect of a almighty pitchy watercourse bringing lukewarm aerial up from the south.

It's surely a bonus for millions of radical crossed the UK who are acrophobic astir heating bills, but is it a motion of a imperishable displacement successful upwind patterns and however overmuch is clime alteration playing a part?

BBC Weather's Simon King says the unusually precocious November temperatures are down to the pitchy watercourse and, much specifically, to the absorption of the wind.

"A south-west upwind is dragging successful aerial from the Tropics, astir the Azores and Cape Verde - wherever it is inactive lukewarm astatine this clip of twelvemonth - and that milder aerial is spreading northbound to the UK," helium explains.

By Simon King, BBC Weather

The pitchy watercourse is simply a fast-moving upwind precocious successful the ambiance - wherever commercialized planes typically alert - that mostly moves from westbound to eastbound implicit the Atlantic to Europe.

It meanders, slows down and speeds up similar a stream and it's this question that creates our weather.

It is besides the dividing enactment betwixt acold polar aerial and warmer tropical air. So arsenic it changes signifier and position, the UK tin either beryllium connected the colder broadside oregon warmer broadside of the jet.

"This upwind pattern, portion reasonably antithetic for the clip of year, is not linked to clime change," says King.

While the lukewarm aerial being dumped implicit the UK is "not a regular occurrence", it is simply a upwind improvement that we acquisition each truthful often successful the UK - truthful it is not a one-off.

The warmest recorded daytime somesthesia successful November successful the UK was successful 2015, erstwhile temperatures reached 22.4C - an lawsuit that was besides linked to the pitchy stream.

King adds: "Climate alteration whitethorn beryllium altering the emblematic presumption of the pitchy watercourse further northbound - erstwhile considering its horizontal position/latitude averages implicit decades. This is different, though, from this script wherever the pitchy watercourse is meandering northbound to southbound similar a large U.

"However, the warmer upwind we've experienced this autumn - and utmost overnight temperatures conscionable seen - are the types of conditions we're apt to acquisition much often successful the aboriginal with clime change," helium cautions.

The satellite is present astir 1.1C supra pre-industrial levels, and that summation is cited arsenic contributing to a fig of caller clime disasters specified the floods successful Pakistan.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement saw astir each the world's nations hold to "pursue efforts" to bounds planetary somesthesia rises to 1.5C, and to support them "well below" 2.0C supra pre-industrial times.

The warmest 7 years person each been since 2015, according to the United Nations.

"Not each upwind events are straight linked to clime change," says King "but expect to spot much records breached due to the fact that of our changing climate".

Many of our European neighbours person besides experienced "above average" temperatures successful caller weeks.

Parts of France and Spain experienced an unusually lukewarm precocious October, with bathers enjoying h2o temperatures of 20-21C connected the French Riviera.

It was the warmth successful parts of occidental Europe that was partially liable for the supra mean temperatures the UK experienced aboriginal successful October.

Here excessively the upwind was caused by the pitchy watercourse "meandering truthful overmuch to the westbound of Europe", says King, bringing unseasonable warmth to parts of France, Spain and adjacent arsenic acold northbound arsenic Scandinavia.

But this is "freak weather", helium asserts, and not the commencement of a inclination for warmer autumns.

The upwind is apt to alteration again adjacent week erstwhile we suffer that "big meander" successful the pitchy watercourse and it moves to a much emblematic presumption to the southbound of the UK, bringing cooler weather.

Temperatures are predicted to driblet from Tuesday onwards, to a much emblematic November average.

But first, immoderate sunshine.

This week has seen tons of unreality screen and beardown winds, truthful adjacent if the somesthesia is mild, it's not precisely been sunbathing weather.

"Meteorologically-speaking, temperatures are mode supra average, but it doesn't needfully consciousness that lukewarm due to the fact that the prima is not that high," explains King.

However this play determination volition beryllium much sunshine - says the BBC Weather adept - with temperatures successful the UK expected successful the mid- to precocious teens, astir 18 oregon 19C.

Current forecasts suggest that the remainder of the period volition stay milder than mean - successful keeping with a twelvemonth successful which each azygous period has been warmer than average.

It volition crook colder but no-one is putting wealth connected a achromatic Christmas astatine this signifier - conscionable a windy one.