Why J.J. McCarthy raises Michigan's College Football Playoff ceiling

On Aug. 27, Michigan hinted astatine however it would physique connected its breakthrough 2021 season. It came successful the signifier of a tweet titled "QB Update" and began with this tease: "We person made a decision."

Coach Jim Harbaugh had not decided the team's starting quarterback, but alternatively connected an in-season contention to find his QB1. Cade McNamara, who led Michigan to its archetypal outright Big Ten title since 2003 and the program's archetypal College Football Playoff appearance, would commencement the opener against Colorado State. J.J. McCarthy, the decorated enlistee who had backed up McNamara successful 2021, would commencement Week 2 against Hawai'i. Heading into Week 3, a last determination astir the starting backmost would beryllium made.

But by simply delaying the decision, Michigan had shown its hand. In years past, a returning backmost starter who had beaten Ohio State and won the Big Ten wouldn't person to reinterview for his job. There would beryllium nary debate. McNamara had managed the discourtesy well, didn't marque galore mistakes and had his teammates' respect. But McCarthy was a superior endowment with a higher ceiling. For Michigan to instrumentality the next, hard step, helium had to instrumentality the snaps.

"That's been the presumption they've conscionable not been elite," a Big Ten manager said. "He changes that."

McCarthy emerged from the mini contention arsenic the victor, and has helped No. 5 Michigan to a 6-0 commencement entering this week's location showdown against No. 10 Penn State. The sophomore leads the state successful accuracy (completing 78.3% of his passes) and has avoided mistakes (one interception successful 120 walk attempts), portion operating a blimpish passing crippled (192 walk yards per game). Used mostly arsenic a situational backmost successful 2021, McCarthy is present doing much each week, albeit against precise manageable contention (only 1 Michigan hostile presently has a winning record).

How acold tin McCarthy instrumentality Michigan this season? Coaches and analysts weighed successful connected the young QB, what they've seen truthful acold and what helium indispensable amended connected if the Wolverines privation to support their Big Ten title, and perchance spell deeper into the postseason.

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J.J. McCarthy throws 3 touchdowns successful the 2nd half, starring Michigan to a 31-10 triumph implicit Indiana.

ESPN rated McCarthy arsenic the No. 2 dual-threat backmost and No. 25 wide subordinate successful the 2021 class, making him the astir decorated QB imaginable successful the Harbaugh era, and Michigan's highest-ranked QB since Ryan Mallett successful 2007 (ESPN's No. 12 enlistee that year). McCarthy not lone has limb spot and quality but elusiveness, a constituent Michigan hadn't magnified successful its quarterbacks nether Harbaugh.

Last year, Michigan mined McCarthy's mobility. In 8 appearances against Big Ten opponents, including the league title game, McCarthy had 21 rushes for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns, and 30 walk attempts for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns. He made mistakes -- 2 interceptions and a cardinal mislaid fumble against Michigan State during Michigan's lone regular-season loss. But helium operated lone a sliver of the playbook.

"J.J.'s special," a Big Ten manager said. "He'll marque a mistake oregon 2 due to the fact that he's young, but he's truthful athletic. He does everything they did before, conscionable better."

On Sept. 10, McCarthy completed 11 of 12 passes for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns successful his archetypal vocation commencement against Hawai'i, a show Harbaugh called "near flawless." But Michigan has mostly brought him on gradually, relying connected prima moving backmost Blake Corum (735 unreserved yards, 11 touchdowns) and a talented violative line.

"The Corum kid is simply a stud, [Donovan] Edwards is lightning fast, and the O-line's the champion it's been for a while," a Big Ten manager said. "Because they're truthful bully successful the tally game, [McCarthy] doesn't person to transportation them."

Coaches accidental Michigan's passing strategy has been designed to easiness McCarthy into the role.

"They get into a batch of stacks and bunches and worldly similar that, hitch routes, prime routes, moving each of those to make immoderate casual throws for him," a Big Ten antiaircraft coordinator said. "He does a bully job. He's conscionable not a large thrower yet."

In Michigan's archetypal 5 games, McCarthy completed 86% of his passes wrong 9 yards of the enactment of scrimmage, accounting for 45.2% of his walk yards. Although each six of his touchdowns came connected passes 10 oregon much yards downfield, his accuracy fell disconnected to 57%, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

After averaging 19.1 yards per effort against Hawai'i, McCarthy's mean dropped to 8.5 yards per effort successful the Big Ten opener against Maryland, and past 6.5 yards the pursuing week against Iowa, earlier going backmost up to 8.4 yards past week against Indiana.

"They're not throwing the full playbook astatine him," said Jon Jansen, the erstwhile Michigan violative lineman who works arsenic the team's vigor analyst. "They're gathering connected what they bash against [each opponent] and putting successful a fewer other wrinkles. They're not overloading, which I deliberation is immense for a young quarterback."

An opposing antiaircraft coordinator added: "He's efficient. Harbaugh ain't a dumb dude. He knows what the kid does good and helium creates those throws for him. That's bully coaching."

McCarthy's decision-making has jumped retired to Jansen. On Michigan's opening thrust against Iowa, McCarthy looked for wide receiver Ronnie Bell streaking down the numbers. Bell was open, but Iowa antiaircraft backmost Cooper DeJean had moved toward the wrong of the route. Rather than hazard a imaginable interception against a defence that past play led the federation with 25, McCarthy threw toward Bell's backmost shoulder.

The walk went incomplete but Bell would people 2 plays aboriginal connected an extremity around. On the Fox broadcast, expert Joel Klatt praised McCarthy for making "the due throw."

"Most radical are looking astatine that going, 'It wasn't a precise close throw, it's conscionable an incomplete pass,' but what helium did was prevention a turnover," Jansen said. "Being capable to enactment unneurotic a methodical thrust against Iowa truly shows the maturation and patience."

Big Ten Network expert Gerry DiNardo wants to spot much of those plays from McCarthy, noting "incompletions are OK, interceptions aren't." DiNardo has seen McCarthy conflict erstwhile pressured successful the pocket, which helium said is mean for a young backmost but besides notable this week. Penn State has pressured quarterbacks connected 85 plays, much than each but 5 FBS teams.

Through Michigan's archetypal six games, McCarthy wasn't pressured often (14 plays) but completed lone 50% of his passes for 72 yards, portion taking 4 sacks, according to ESPN Stats & Information. When not pressured, McCarthy has completed 81% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception.

"His occupation is erstwhile he's successful the pouch and he's nether pressure, he's not precise bully yet," DiNardo said. "He's fabulous throwing the shot connected the run, due to the fact that helium tin conscionable benignant of flick it, he's got a truly beardown arm. So there's nary ceiling for him. I conscionable deliberation he's truly really young.

"[Penn State] antiaircraft coordinator Manny Diaz volition springiness him each helium tin grip Saturday."

The champion elements of McCarthy's crippled this play person travel erstwhile he's connected the move. Through Michigan's archetypal 5 games, helium had a QBR of 97 connected throws extracurricular the pocket, completing 88% of his attempts with 3 touchdowns and nary interceptions.

On third-and-8 against Iowa, McCarthy evaded talented pass-rusher Lukas Van Ness, moved to his close and rifled a touchdown walk to Edwards successful the backmost of the extremity zone.

"When you spot that, I don't attraction what benignant of defence you have, immoderate you're ranked, that's conscionable a feline doing things that you can't strategy against," said Greg Holcomb, McCarthy's backstage backmost trainer.

"Off helium goes, helium drops back, and past helium runs implicit to his left, circles backmost to his right, backmost to his left, runs it, oregon throws it, to an unfastened guy!" Harbaugh said afterward. "Man, I emotion it. I conscionable emotion it, emotion it."

Michigan has incorporated much elements into its discourtesy to stress McCarthy's strengths. The Wolverines person utilized much dispersed sets with 4 wide receivers and speedy passes to the flat. Holcomb saw Michigan incorporated a run-pass enactment bubble with McCarthy against Iowa, a definitive caller wrinkle successful the scheme.

"You tin spot the called rollouts, wherever you get him extracurricular the pocket, already helium gets a amended presumption of what's going connected down the field, you alteration the motorboat constituent of the quarterback," Jansen said.

Harbaugh precocious compared McCarthy to a younger mentation of himself due to the fact that of his willingness to ne'er springiness up connected a play.

"I creation a existent good enactment of not taking his peculiar endowment and overcoaching it," Harbaugh said. "I bash not privation him to beryllium a unfortunate of overcoaching. So erstwhile it's each said and done, it's just, 'Do you J.J., play your game.' It's truly good. Just support the ball."

Last week against Indiana, McCarthy recorded his archetypal vocation 300-yard passing game, portion adding 26 unreserved yards connected 4 carries. But Michigan isn't transforming its violative attack conscionable yet, particularly with McNamara sidelined since Week 3 due to the fact that of a lower-leg injury.

"Two things forestall them from utilizing [McCarthy] arsenic overmuch arsenic they would similar to successful the tally game," DiNardo said. "The formations don't lend themselves to it. It's hard to tally those dispersed enactment plays from choky formations. The 2nd happening is they don't privation to get him hurt. There was a crippled helium ran retired of bounds twice, and was intelligibly coached. He wasn't acrophobic of contact.

"They'd similar to usage him successful the enactment game, they astir apt would request him against Penn State, but it's a good line."

The question is erstwhile McCarthy reaches a constituent wherever Michigan tin consciousness comfy leaning connected his full accomplishment set.

"They're conscionable scratching the aboveground connected what they tin bash with him," Holcomb said. "He's a ace peculiar talent."

Holcomb, who runs the Next Level Athletix backmost grooming programme extracurricular Chicago, noticed McCarthy's endowment erstwhile they began moving unneurotic successful the summertime earlier McCarthy entered seventh grade. McCarthy's limb spot popped but besides his agility and balance, which Holcomb attributes to his occurrence successful hockey.

They focused overmuch of their grooming connected off-platform throws, popularized by Kansas City Chiefs backmost Patrick Mahomes and others, wherever quarterbacks determination 1 absorption and propulsion backmost crossed the field.

"I telephone them, 'Oh, crap' throws," Holcomb said. "When you're throwing it, the manager puts his hands connected his caput and is like, 'Oh, crap,' and past you implicit it and helium starts clapping, going, 'All right, bully job, bully job.' We bid that way. He's got the guts to effort 'em and he's got the accomplishment level to implicit 'em."

McCarthy proved it successful his collegiate debut past twelvemonth against Western Michigan. On third-and-26, McCarthy wriggled escaped of a defender, slid to his left, acceptable his feet and launched an across-the-field propulsion to Daylen Baldwin for a 69-yard touchdown, the archetypal of his career.

"That's conscionable a antithetic propulsion that mean cats don't make," Holcomb said. "I'm truly excited to spot much of those kinds of opportunities and plays from him."

Those who person faced oregon observed McCarthy hold that the biggest leap successful his crippled indispensable travel with downfield passes. Through six games, helium has lone 13 completions of 20 yards oregon more, tied for 92nd nationally. Jansen and DiNardo some cited aggregate plays against Maryland and Iowa wherever McCarthy missed unfastened receivers connected heavy routes for apt touchdowns.

"If you look astatine each of his targets and his completions, they're each benignant of bubble, slant, quick-game stuff, precise fewer down-the-field balls," an opposing manager said. "Our happening was, 'Let's situation him to propulsion it down the tract and spot if helium tin marque those throws.'"

Penn State apt volition instrumentality a akin approach, portion applying much unit than erstwhile Michigan opponents. The Nittany Lions blitz connected archetypal down 37% of the time, and person been capable to make unit connected astir 30% of dropbacks portion sending 4 oregon less rushers.

They aren't a measurement sacks squad but person forced 12 turnovers successful 5 games, portion ranking 12th nationally successful opposing passer rating.

"I truly privation him to beryllium capable to drawback the shot successful that shotgun presumption and determine truly adjacent earlier the shot is snapped wherever I'm going to go," Jansen said. "It's speechmaking the defence and who's going to beryllium unfastened due to the fact that you're not going to person arsenic agelong to beryllium capable to clasp that shot and flight the pocket. You've got to marque that determination quick."

McCarthy understands helium indispensable amended connected heavy balls, and noted that he's inactive moving backmost from a throwing enarthrosis wounded that constricted his throwing done outpouring practice.

"I'm starting to summation my spot back," McCarthy said Tuesday. "My hips are much mobile. Just being capable to get backmost into that bushed again, and not consciousness similar I request to enactment my each into a throw, recognize I person a beardown arm, conscionable absorption connected it, spot the shot done the propulsion and present it to them.

"The guys person been doing large getting open. I've conscionable got to enactment the shot connected them.

Penn State undoubtedly volition vigor up McCarthy, particularly erstwhile Michigan passes connected archetypal down, but Nittany Lions manager James Franklin doesn't expect the sophomore to flinch.

"Part of his poise is assurance successful his athleticism," Franklin said. "He feels similar helium tin basal successful there. If helium gets pressure, helium runs good capable to tally distant from astir radical and debar hits. He's capable to tally for a archetypal down connected the sideline, measurement retired of bounds, but support radical connected their heels. That assurance comes from his accuracy, that assurance comes from his athleticism, and that assurance comes from staying up of the sticks."

While immoderate are lukewarm connected McCarthy's play truthful far, and privation to spot him against amended competition, they inactive admit his potential, particularly arsenic an athlete. DiNardo called the sophomore an "over-the-top" endowment with "no ceiling."

Michigan yet indispensable pat into each of McCarthy's strengths to get backmost to the CFP, and yet advance. After a harmless and palmy commencement to the McCarthy era, the clip has travel to instrumentality disconnected the grooming wheels. McCarthy this week noted that what Michigan has shown truthful acold is "not matching up with our imaginable and wherever we should be, and wherever we're going to be."

"I'm definite there's immoderate 'aha' moments successful that coaches' room, wherever they're like, 'We could bash immoderate things that possibly we haven't done successful the past,'" Holcomb said. "The United States is astir to really, genuinely spot him instrumentality off, arsenic they commencement to germinate their offense."