Why South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa is leading Ukraine peace mission

Seven African leaders are travelling to Ukraine and Russia connected a bid mission, hoping to bring the warfare determination person to an end.

The delegation from South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda is gathering President Volodymyr Zelensky connected Friday and President Vladimir Putin connected Saturday.

But the timing of the sojourn seems off. It comes conscionable arsenic Kyiv is launching its much-vaunted counter-offensive.

So, what tin this ngo really achieve?

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa offered nary timeline oregon proposals erstwhile helium made the announcement past month, joining a crowded tract of would-be peacemakers that includes China, Turkey and the Pope.

"What is the strategical thrust of this intervention?" asks Kingsley Makhubela, a South African hazard expert and erstwhile diplomat. "It's not clear. Is this a photograph op by African heads of state?"

The ngo is an antithetic burst of activism fixed Africa's mostly hands-off attack to a struggle that galore present spot chiefly arsenic a confrontation betwixt Russia and the West.

It is besides a uncommon effort astatine diplomatic involution extracurricular the continent - a "welcome development" fixed Africa's increasing request to person a bigger dependable astatine the UN and different planetary organisations, says Murithi Mutiga, Africa manager astatine the International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank.

The antheral who has prepared the ground, Jean-Yves Ollivier, has talked astir humble goals.

He heads a UK-based enactment known arsenic the Brazzaville Foundation, which focuses chiefly connected bid and improvement initiatives successful Africa.

Mr Ollivier has stopped commenting publically astir the travel since the dates became official. But successful antecedently published interviews helium has laid retired his approach.

He said the purpose was to commencement talking alternatively than to resoluteness the conflict, to statesman a dialog connected issues that bash not straight impact the subject concern and physique from there.

One of them is simply a imaginable swap of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war.

The different is to effort and find solutions to issues that substance to Africa, similar atom and fertilizer.

The warfare has severely restricted the export of atom from Ukraine and fertilizers from Russia, intensifying planetary nutrient insecurity. Africa, which depends connected imports of both, has suffered the most.

Mr Ollivier said the African leaders would question to transportation the Russians to widen the fragile statement that allows Ukraine to vessel atom done the Black Sea.

And it volition impulse Kyiv to assistance find ways to easiness restrictions connected the export of Russian fertilizers presently being held up successful ports.

There are indications, however, that the leaders "seek to connection a much substantive woody betwixt the 2 sides", says Mr Mutiga.

The delegation has been designed for breadth and balance: 5 presidents and Uganda's representative, lasting successful for President Yoweri Museveni who is recovering from Covid-19.

They travel from antithetic parts of Africa and person antithetic views connected the conflict.

South Africa and Uganda are seen arsenic leaning towards Russia, portion Zambia and Comoros are person to the West. Egypt, Senegal and Congo-Brazzaville person remained mostly neutral.

But caller developments successful South Africa look to beryllium influencing the venture.

Mr Ramaphosa's authorities has travel nether increasing unit from the US due to the fact that of its alleged enactment for Russia's war. This centres connected claims of an arms shipment to Moscow, which South Africa has denied.

The Biden medication is waiting for the result of Pretoria's authoritative investigation, but a bipartisan radical of US lawmakers wants the White House to punish South Africa by reconsidering important preferential commercialized benefits.

"I deliberation [the mission] is present aligned with a request for South Africa to explicate itself," says Alex Vines, manager of the Africa Programme astatine London's Chatham House think-tank.

Dr Vines says the Americans are nary longer trying to marque Africa take sides successful the struggle arsenic they did erstwhile Russia archetypal invaded Ukraine.

Many African states person maintained a non-aligned position, a stance the US acknowledges is rooted successful the past of the Cold War and does not needfully mean enactment for Moscow.

Washington present "advocates existent non-alignment", helium says, "hence the unit connected South Africa astatine the infinitesimal to beryllium that it's genuinely non-aligned".

Mr Ramaphosa has been a driving unit successful getting the travel into shape, nailing it down with calls to Mr Putin and Mr Zelensky, and briefing UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

Although neither Russia nor Ukraine person shown immoderate involvement successful bid talks, some person an involvement successful this visit.

Moscow has been cultivating power successful Africa arsenic a counterweight to the West and is hoping to showcase that successful a Russia-Africa acme successful St Petersburg adjacent month.

Ukraine has been trying to drawback up connected African diplomacy from a lasting start. It precocious sent its overseas curate to the continent to plead its lawsuit and would invited different accidental to bash so.

The Ukrainians "will astir apt effort to transportation the African mediators not to be the summit", says Dr Makhubela.

"The Russians privation to amusement that they are not isolated. But their interests are… mutually exclusive. That's wherefore this is going to make a dilemma for African heads of authorities arsenic to whether they spell to St Petersburg," helium adds.

Analysts spot the acme arsenic an important indicator of Africa's relations with Russia, but not an ideological one.

"Africans are transactional successful this," says Dr Vines, noting that the biggest interest of ex-guerrilla fighters successful Mozambique helium had spoken to precocious was the outgo of surviving due to the fact that of "this distant European war".

"It's not their war," helium says.

That is successful information 1 of the fewer advantages the African leaders could bring to the bid array arsenic mediators, according to Mr Mutiga, should the parties ever determine to beryllium astatine it.