Why talk of a UK doctor exodus is premature

The NHS, it is claimed, is facing an exodus of doctors. It is 1 of the reasons enactment guardant to enactment their claims for much wage arsenic onslaught enactment continues.

But an investigation of information by the BBC suggests this is not the lawsuit - yet.

The proportionality of the aesculapian workforce leaving the NHS has hardly changed for a decade, portion figures connected those seeking a determination overseas bash not, overall, amusement a wide upwards trend.

There are, however, immoderate worrying signs - with expanding numbers of inferior doctors taking a interruption successful their training, and immoderate grounds that assertive selling by authorities successful Australia connected societal media and billboards is turning the heads of much UK medics.

Every twelvemonth thousands of doctors permission the NHS. Some retire, others determination into backstage signifier and immoderate caput abroad.

But figures from NHS Digital successful England amusement implicit the past decennary the proportionality leaving wide has remained beauteous changeless astatine astir 14-15%.

Meanwhile, the fig of caller joiners has increased, starring to a emergence successful the fig of doctors successful the NHS.

But what astir if we conscionable look astatine inferior doctors? This is the radical that receives the lowest rates of wage successful the assemblage and is often said to beryllium the astir disenchanted.

They marque up astir fractional the infirmary doctors successful England and see anyone who has finished aesculapian schoolhouse but has not yet completed their postgraduate grooming to go a GP, speciality doc oregon consultant.

Firstly, astir inferior doctors bash stay. Of those successful 2016 who had completed their archetypal 2 years of instauration training, lone 7% had near the assemblage 5 years later, according to the General Medical Council (GMC).

However, different information from the regulator does amusement a large leap successful the numbers taking a interruption from their training.

In 2012, two-thirds moved consecutive connected to the 3rd twelvemonth of their inferior doc grooming pathway aft completing twelvemonth two.

But by 2020 that fig had fallen to nether a third.

Where these doctors are going is unclear. They could beryllium spending clip moving arsenic a locum - taking well-paid but ad-hoc freelance shifts to screen gaps successful rotas - going travelling oregon seeking opportunities abroad.

Most look to travel backmost aft a intermission of a twelvemonth oregon two, but the information determination is simply a wide upwards inclination is causing immoderate concern.

The champion information connected however galore determination overseas each twelvemonth comes from the GMC database connected applications for a Certificate of Good Standing, which doctors usage to use for enactment abroad.

Before the pandemic, determination were consistently much than 6,000 certificates a twelvemonth sent to different aesculapian authorities astir the world.

After a driblet during the pandemic the fig roseate to astir 7,000 successful 2022.

More caller figures for 2023 truthful acold suggest the fig volition beryllium higher again - though it is unclear if this reflects a semipermanent rise, arsenic the inclination seen implicit the past 18 months whitethorn conscionable beryllium a earthy catch-up pursuing the dip during the pandemic.

The astir fashionable countries are Australia, United Arab Emirates, Canada and Ireland, accounting for two-thirds of the certificates.

But applying for 1 of these certificates does not mean a doc has decidedly near the UK, the GMC says, alternatively it shows an volition to enactment overseas successful the future. Data from erstwhile years suggests fractional of doctors who use for a certificate stay moving successful the UK.

The BBC has besides approached the aesculapian authorities straight successful Australia and New Zealand astir the fig of doctors trained successful the UK emigrating.

New Zealand has the astir up-to-date figures, which amusement astir 500 doctors a twelvemonth trained successful the UK and Ireland near to enactment determination earlier the pandemic. The information disposable for the archetypal three-quarters of 2022-23 suggests a akin level.

The figures for Australia lone spell up to 2021, and amusement a full of 6,621 UK-trained doctors arriving to enactment that year. There has been a gradual upwards inclination implicit the past 5 years with the figures much than a 4th higher than they were successful 2016.

And the British Medical Association (BMA) is convinced this volition get worse.

Dr Robert Laurenson and Dr Vivek Trivedi, who jointly seat the BMA inferior doctors' committee, said: "You cannot disregard the grounds that if the authorities won't wage doctors what they are worth, they are going to proceed to permission for countries that will."

But arsenic doctors permission the UK, it is besides worthy noting medics travel successful from abroad.

Last twelvemonth much than 12,000 doctors who were trained overseas joined the register. The fig of newly-qualified homegrown doctors who joined was 8,000.