Why this could be the committee's easiest -- or hardest -- CFP selection

The College Football Playoff enactment committee mightiness not adjacent interruption a sweat this weekend. No lengthy debates, nary Tylenol needed and aboriginal edifice checkouts each around.

No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 TCU and No. 4 USC look 1 league title triumph distant from locking up those coveted 4 spots. This volition beryllium the archetypal clip since 2017 determination won't beryllium a top-five matchup during title weekend, arsenic TCU is the lone squad facing a top-10 CFP hostile successful No. 10 Kansas State. USC has a tricky crippled against No. 11 Utah, but Michigan is playing unranked, four-loss Purdue.

Georgia is simply a dense favourite against three-loss No. 14 LSU.

A triumph successful their respective league rubric games would punctuate their résumés with 1 of the tiebreakers utilized to abstracted them from the likes of No. 5 Ohio State (11-1) and No. 6 Alabama (10-2).

Even with a loss, some Georgia and Michigan look connected coagulated footing for a top-four finish, barring implicit meltdowns. The committee would person to equilibrium Michigan's triumph against Ohio State -- arguably the champion successful the state -- with the worst nonaccomplishment of immoderate contender. It would inactive ain the head-to-head, though against Ohio State.

The CFP is connected the brink of a tract that doesn't see Ohio State, Alabama oregon Clemson. Let that descend successful for a minute: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State person claimed 17 of the 32 playoff spots. This season, Ohio State and Alabama didn't triumph their respective divisions. Their résumés are complete. At No. 9, two-loss Clemson is simply a playoff afterthought pursuing its location nonaccomplishment to South Carolina, adjacent if it beats three-loss North Carolina to triumph the ACC.

Instead of 2 -- oregon three! -- SEC teams, 4 antithetic Power 5 conferences could beryllium represented, with TCU and USC successful presumption to decorativeness successful the apical 4 for the archetypal clip successful the CFP era. With USC facing Utah connected Friday night, the Pac-12 volition person the spotlight to itself for the 1 clip the enactment committee watches the games in-person together. Undefeated TCU volition effort to bushed K-State for the 2nd clip this season, portion USC has a accidental to redeem itself from a regular-season nonaccomplishment to the Utes.

For the Buckeyes oregon Tide to creep backmost into the conversation, they're going to request immoderate assistance -- and past says they could get it. According to ESPN's Stats & Information research, 26 of the erstwhile 32 teams successful the apical 4 successful the second-to-last ranking person made the CFP. Five of the six that didn't marque it mislaid successful the last weekend.

Here's what the 5th ranking means if determination are upsets erstwhile it matters the most, and however it volition power the committee connected Selection Day:

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Anger Index | 12-team bracket | Résumés |

Ohio State is acceptable to pounce -- from their couches -- with an upset

With Ohio State and Alabama not playing this weekend, their positions aren't expected to alteration Sunday. Since the committee deems the Buckeyes amended now, they would beryllium the archetypal considered if a squad supra them loses. The easiest way would beryllium for USC to suffer to Utah, due to the fact that that would beryllium USC's 2nd nonaccomplishment to the Utes this year, making it hard for the committee to warrant the Trojans arsenic "unequivocally" 1 of the 4 champion teams successful the country. They besides aren't going to reward three-loss Utah, adjacent though the Utes conscionable won the Pac-12 title. Instead, the doorway would beryllium unfastened for Ohio State to determination into the 4th spot. It gets a small trickier, though, if the lone upset is TCU losing to K-State ...

What happens if No. 3 TCU loses?

The biggest question looming is what happens if TCU loses? It would beryllium successful portion connected however the Big 12 title unfolds -- if K-State were to triumph convincingly with the committee watching together, it makes it harder for them to support the Frogs successful the apical 4 and brings Ohio State backmost into the conversation. TCU is presently No. 1 successful ESPN's spot of grounds metric, though, and it would person regular-season wins against K-State and No. 20 Texas. Those would beryllium measured against Ohio State's wins against No. 8 Penn State and No. 21 Notre Dame. If TCU loses a adjacent game, and USC wins, it's imaginable USC moves up to No. 3, and TCU drops to No. 4. TCU's chances of staying successful the apical 4 summation if USC besides loses, though, simply by default. That peculiar script would unfastened the doorway for Alabama to besides beryllium considered. And yet ...

No. 6 Alabama's hopes are each but extinguished

If Alabama's hopes are going to beryllium resurrected, it would apt instrumentality 2 lopsided losses by some TCU and USC, but that inactive doesn't regularisation retired the anticipation of TCU and Ohio State finishing successful the apical four. It helped Alabama that No. 24 Mississippi State popped into the 5th ranking, though it was fundamentally a lavation due to the fact that the Bulldogs bushed Ole Miss to get there, which was 1 of Alabama's amended wins. Alabama's champion triumph is astatine No. 20 Texas. The champion quality for the Tide? They were ranked up of some teams they mislaid to -- No. 14 LSU and No. 7 Tennessee.

The American rubric crippled arsenic de facto New Year's 6 play-in game

The highest-ranked league champion from a Group of 5 league is guaranteed a spot successful a New Year's Six bowl, and that volition beryllium decided astatine 4 p.m. ET Saturday erstwhile No. 18 Tulane hosts No. 22 UCF successful the American Athletic Conference title game. According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has a 59% accidental to win. Cincinnati fell retired this week pursuing its 27-24 nonaccomplishment to Tulane connected Friday, and 10-2 UTSA remained unranked, leaving the AAC astatine the apical again. -- Heather Dinich

Anger index

There's a peculiarly poignant country successful a Season 5 occurrence of "The Simpsons," successful which Homer earns a spot aboard the abstraction shuttle due to the fact that his lone contention for the grant got drunk connected non-alcoholic champagne and flew disconnected utilizing a pitchy pack.

NASA boss: Well, Homer, I conjecture you're the victor by default.

Homer: De-fault! The 2 sweetest words successful the English language.

Indeed, it must've been peculiarly saccharine for the College Football Playoff committee to ticker arsenic Ohio State, LSU, Clemson and Oregon each utilized Week 13 to ace unfastened immoderate Martinelli's and caput disconnected into the wild, bluish yonder. It made their occupation awfully easy.

So, if the apical 4 is each successful spot by default, there's small request for outrage, right? Perhaps we conscionable request to excavation a small deeper for this week's Anger Index.

1. USC Trojans (ranked fourth)

Wait, didn't we conscionable accidental the apical 4 was clear? What does USC person to beryllium upset about?

The Trojans' ranking is fine. They're the top-ranked one-loss team. The occupation is, with the committee putting Penn State astatine No. 8, the borderline of mistake for USC successful the Pac-12 title crippled conscionable shrunk substantially.

Step backmost and look astatine the résumés. USC present has wins implicit No. 15 Oregon State, No. 17 UCLA and No. 21 Notre Dame. Its lone nonaccomplishment came by a constituent to No. 11 Utah. That's a truly coagulated income transportation to the committee.

Ohio State's income pitch? A little awesome triumph implicit Notre Dame and a roadworthy triumph implicit Penn State.

With some teams 11-1, there's nary question who should beryllium No. 4. But presume USC loses again to Utah successful the Pac-12 rubric game, portion Ohio State sits location and watches. What happens then? Would the committee truly punish the Trojans for playing an other crippled and enactment the Buckeyes into the playoff?

The champion lawsuit for doing that would beryllium simple: Ohio State bushed the No. 8 squad successful the state connected the road. USC wouldn't person a triumph that good. And it mightiness beryllium a valid capable argument, but for this 1 tiny flaw: Who has Penn State beaten? The reply is... nary 1 successful this apical 25. The Nittany Lions' champion triumph came successful Week 1 against Purdue successful a crippled successful which they trailed into the last infinitesimal of action. Every different squad ranked successful the apical 9 has astatine slightest 2 wins implicit different teams successful the apical 25.

So, if it comes down to Ohio State's triumph implicit Penn State pushing the Buckeyes into the apical 4 adjacent week, it'll beryllium an awfully bladed borderline that got them there.

2. Tennessee Volunteers (ranked seventh)

Tennessee bushed Alabama. Tennessee bushed LSU by 27 points, and LSU besides bushed Alabama. Tennessee has the aforesaid grounds arsenic Alabama, and some losses were to teams Alabama didn't person to play (one to the No. 1 squad successful the state and 1 to the No. 19 squad successful the country). So, wherefore is it that the Volunteers are inactive ranked down Alabama? The committee has fundamentally determined the nonaccomplishment of QB Hendon Hooker requires downgrading the Volunteers entirely. Given that Tennessee mightiness person the champion backup QB successful the country, that seems similar a bold assumption.

3. Troy Trojans (unranked)

The committee has decided the victor of the American Athletic title crippled volition spell to the New Year's Six, and if the victor is Tulane, it's pugnacious to reason against it. But UCF? A squad that mislaid to ECU by 21? A squad that mislaid astatine location to Navy? A squad that needed a touchdown with 20 seconds to play past week to bushed woeful USF? Why precisely are the Knights successful superior contention for a New Year's Six vessel implicit a Troy squad with a amended record, a nine-game winning streak, and acold much forgivable losses? The Trojans' lone defeats came successful Week 1 against an Ole Miss squad that was ranked each play until this poll, and a roadworthy decision connected a last-second Hail Mary astatine Appalachian State. Meanwhile, Troy has coagulated wins implicit Western Kentucky and South Alabama and tin adhd different successful the Sun Belt rubric crippled against Coastal Carolina this week. That Troy isn't adjacent successful the treatment is simply a monolithic oversight. -- David M. Hale

How a 12-team playoff would look

Everyone with the powerfulness to grow the College Football Playoff wants the tract to turn to 12 teams successful clip for the 2024 season.

But currently, enlargement is scheduled to statesman successful 2026. So portion discussions proceed connected however to move up the timeline, we're taking a look astatine however a 12-team playoff would look contiguous based connected the already-determined exemplary released by the commissioners and presidents.

The tract volition beryllium composed of the enactment committee's six highest-ranked league champions and its adjacent six highest-ranked teams. The 4 highest-ranked league champions volition gain the apical seeds and a first-round bye. The different 8 teams volition play successful the archetypal round, with the higher seeds hosting the little seeds connected field oregon astatine different tract of their choice.

Here's what the playoff would look similar if the 12-team format were successful spot today:

Seeds with byes

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC

Remaining seeds
(conference champs successful bold)

5. Ohio State
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Clemson
10. Kansas State
11. Utah
12. Tulane

First-round games

No. 12 Tulane astatine No. 5 Ohio State
No. 11 Utah astatine No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Kansas State astatine No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Clemson astatine No. 8 Penn State

Quarterfinal games

No. 9 Clemson-No. 8 Penn State victor vs. No. 1 Georgia
No. 10 Kansas State-No. 7 Tennessee victor vs. No. 2 Michigan
No. 11 Utah-No. 6 Alabama victor vs. No. 3 TCU
No. 12 Tulane-No. 5 Ohio State victor vs. No. 4 USC

Top 6 résumés

No. 1 Georgia

Record: 12-0 | SOS: 47| SOR: No. 3
Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee
Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18

No. 2 Michigan

Record: 12-0 | SOS: 39 | SOR: 2
Biggest win: Nov. 26 astatine Ohio State, 45-23
Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal astatine the Orange Bowl No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11

No. 3 TCU

Record: 12-0 | SOS: 35 | SOR: 1
Biggest win: Nov. 12 astatine Texas, 17-10
Last playoff appearance: Never

No. 4 USC

Record: 11-1| SOS: 57| SOR: 6
Biggest win: Nov. 26 vs. Notre Dame, 38-27
Last playoff appearance: Never

No. 5 Ohio State

Record: 11-1 | SOS: 34 | SOR: No. 4
Biggest win: Oct. 29 astatine Penn State, 44-31
Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship: No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24

No. 6 Alabama

Record: 10-2 | SOS: 8| SOR: 5
Biggest win: Sept. 10 astatine Texas, 20-19
Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National Championship: No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18