Will LAFC's high-scoring ways get past Philly's defense?

For the archetypal clip successful 19 years, the apical teams successful each of Major League Soccer's conferences person reached the MLS Cup final. Both teams are aiming for their archetypal league title, and the respective paths the organizations took couldn't person been much different.

Philadelphia Union's accomplishment to the last has been a long, dependable climb. The Union qualified for the playoffs conscionable doubly successful their archetypal 8 years. But starting successful 2018, the nine deed upon a look of dense reliance connected its academy -- Jack McGlynn is the latest to walk done and marque an interaction -- combined with astute mining of the transportation market, picking up the likes of near backmost Kai Wagner and holding midfielder Jose Martinez, to go 1 of the astir accordant performers successful the league. The past 3 seasons person seen the Union decorativeness nary little than 3rd successful the Eastern Conference, with the Supporters Shield being claimed successful 2020.

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This play saw Philadelphia assertion different Eastern Conference regular-season title, but with a twist. The Union's antiaircraft backbone remained successful place, mounting an MLS grounds with conscionable 26 goals conceded. But added to it was an onslaught that scored a league-best 72 goals, with Daniel Gazdag bagging 22 goals to spell on 10 assists.

By comparison, LAFC's march to the last has been much caffeine-infused. The Black-and-Gold were competitory from the infinitesimal they started play successful 2018, winning the Supporters Shield a twelvemonth later. A twelvemonth aft that, LAFC astir claimed the CONCACAF Champions League successful 2020, squandering a second-half pb against Tigres. There was the bump successful the roadworthy that saw the squad miss the postseason successful 2021, but LAFC retooled with immoderate astute pickups of their own, similar holding midfielder Ilie Sanchez and close backmost Ryan Hollingshead.

There is simply a inclination to deliberation this matchup boils down to whether LAFC tin interruption down Philly's defense, and that volition surely beryllium a factor. Philadelphia had the third-lowest possession percent successful the league astatine 43.6%, portion LAFC had the 10th champion astatine 51.1%, truthful this is simply a lucifer wherever the Black-and-Gold fig to person much of the ball. LAFC's attacking trident of Cristian Arango, Denis Bouanga and Carlos Vela has shown it is adept astatine wearing opponents down, particularly successful the postseason.

But Philadelphia is plentifulness comfy playing without the ball, and the information that it inactive had the third-highest xG people astatine 63.72 points shows however the Union are adept astatine creating -- and exploiting -- modulation moments. That volition beryllium a immense situation for LAFC, though their defence enactment up immoderate awesome numbers arsenic well. LAFC allowed the fewest shots connected extremity per crippled successful the league astatine 3.4.

Perhaps the much important origin volition beryllium if LAFC tin find a mode past Philadelphia goalkeeper Andre Blake. Blake won his 3rd MLS Goalkeeper of the Year grant past month, and ranked 2nd successful goals prevented (a measurement of goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed) with a people of 11.4. In presumption of the oculus test, Blake was superb against some FC Cincinnati and NYCFC.

Then determination is home-field advantage. It's worthy noting that the 2 teams finished level connected points, but since LAFC had 2 much wins, they claimed the Shield -- and location tract for Saturday's last -- alternatively of Philly, contempt the Union's vastly superior extremity differential.

Since MLS went distant from neutral venues starting successful 2012, the location broadside has prevailed successful 7 of the 10 ensuing MLS Cup finals, though 2 of the defeats were via penalties. Banc of California Stadium figures to beryllium an implicit cauldron, adjacent with the 1 p.m. Pacific clip kickoff.

Playing astatine location connected specified an juncture tin make its ain peculiar benignant of pressure, but LAFC is apt to clasp that tension, cheered connected by the partisan crowd. That makes them a constrictive favourite to prevail.

MLS Cup predictions

Ahead of the MLS Cup, ESPN's Jeff Carlisle, Kyle Bonagura, Dan Hajducky, and Austin Lindberg foretell which of the 2 last teams volition assistance the trophy.

LAFC has a smidgen much prime successful onslaught and, arsenic awesome arsenic Philly's defence is, that should transportation the day. -- Carlisle

First, let's admit that this should beryllium viewed arsenic perchance the champion MLS Cup last matchup of each time. It's uncommon for the 2 apical seeds -- fto unsocial teams tied for Supporters' Shield connected points -- conscionable successful the last and, the past clip it happened successful 2003, the prime of MLS wasn't astir what it is today. Anyone who feels powerfully astir who volition triumph has misplaced confidence, and with that understood, LAFC is the pick. Banc of California Stadium provides an unthinkable location tract vantage and the Black-and-Gold's attacking endowment is superior. -- Bonagura

There seems to beryllium thing spooky-good happening for Philadelphia's sports franchises of precocious -- and I'm not betting against that bully juju. The champion violative firepower successful MLS successful LAFC's Carlos Vela and Cristian Arango volition autumn abbreviated against the second-best antiaircraft squad successful league past and 2022 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year (a league-record 3rd award) Andre Blake. Two-time MLS Coach of the Year and Union gaffer Jim Curtin yet gets his hardware. -- Hajducky

Regardless of the outcome, this stands to beryllium 1 of the astir memorable MLS Cups successful years. These person been the 2 champion teams successful the league each season, truthful it's going to beryllium a existent dainty to ticker them quadrate disconnected with everything connected the line. LAFC whitethorn person the borderline successful endowment and prima power, but I similar the extent and cohesion of Philadelphia, and their defending and goalkeeping that endanger to nullify the Black-and-Gold's homefield advantage. -- Lindberg