Will Putin survive his 'catastrophic' Ukraine war? - Yahoo News

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When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his three-pronged penetration of neighboring Ukraine successful February 2022, his extremity was to erase Ukraine arsenic a sovereign federation successful a substance of days. At the time, it seemed a plausible goal, successful Russia and successful the West. Nearly a twelvemonth later, Ukraine's endurance is simply a overmuch safer stake than Putin's.

Ukraine has systemically and strategically taken backmost fractional the territory Russia seized, inflicting humiliating nonaccomplishment aft debilitating setback. As Ukraine's battlefield victories heap up, the U.S. and its NATO allies are giving it progressively blase weapons.

"If 2023 continues arsenic it began, determination is simply a bully accidental Ukraine volition beryllium capable to fulfill President Volodymyr Zelensky's New Year's pledge to retake each of Ukraine by the extremity of the twelvemonth — oregon astatine slightest capable territory to definitively extremity Russia's threat," writes Liz Sly astatine The Washington Post.

Meanwhile, Russia's sanctions-slammed economy struggles to churn retired oregon import caller munitions, and its dense battlefield losses person prompted Putin to institute an unpopular draft.

War is unpredictable, and Ukraine's humor and talented treasure are not infinite. But if Russia, the erstwhile superpower, does suffer its warfare successful Ukraine, volition that extremity Putin's grip connected power? Or his lease connected life? In different words, volition Putin past his penetration of Ukraine?

There are a fig of ways Putin's warfare tin ruin Russia — it is already "turning Russia into a failed state, with uncontrolled borders, backstage subject formations, a fleeing population, motivation decay, and the anticipation of civilian conflict," Arkady Ostrovsky writes astatine The Economist — but determination are truly lone 3 ways it tin topple Putin himself: He could die, resign, oregon beryllium involuntarily retired.

Putin's life

Putin fashions himself a physically fit, hockey-playing judo champion who hunts chaotic crippled and occasionally rides shirtless connected a horse. But arsenic helium emerged from utmost COVID-19 isolation, rumors started spreading that helium was sick oregon adjacent dying.

Valery Solovey, a Russian governmental expert and Kremlin critic, alleged successful 2020 that Putin had crab and Parkinson's illness and had undergone exigency country sometime that year. New Lines mag reported successful May 2022 that "a increasing chorus of those adjacent to Putin oregon successful his home quality apparatus" are murmuring astir his mediocre health, and an unidentified "oligarch adjacent to the Kremlin" had been secretly recorded describing Putin arsenic "very sick with humor cancer."

"The grounds for the preponderance of disparate if not contradictory claims of Putin's imminent demise is Putin himself," Michael Weiss wrote astatine New Lines. "He surely looks bad. The bullfrog mien, awkward gait, fidgety behaviour astatine televised events." Putin "really does not consciousness precise well," particularly aft Russia's subject defeats, Solovey told Ukraine's UNIAN quality agency successful November 2022. "He has problems, tummy pains, and truthful on. Most likely, helium has trouble controlling himself."

Kyrylo Budanov, the caput of Ukraine's subject intelligence, told ABC News successful January that "Putin is terminally ill, helium volition dice earlier the warfare ends and determination volition beryllium a transportation of power." Based connected their quality sources, helium added, "we deliberation it's cancer."

"There are 2 ways of explaining wherefore determination are truthful galore rumors circulating astir Putin's health," The Economist's Arkady Ostrovsky said successful June 2022. "One, of course, is political, if you like: So galore radical astir Putin present who recognize helium has made this bonzer blunder that has driven Russia into this catastrophic war. There are a batch of radical who spot and privation for the champion mode out, which is Putin dying successful office."

"The other, of course, is the anticipation that helium is very, precise earnestly ill," though "we can't verify this," Arkady added. "The information that they are circulating, however, is politically significant. It is grounds of however brittle this authorities is and however rapidly it could unravel, however overmuch is held unneurotic by Putin, and however galore radical privation him dead."

The Kremlin has disputed the wellness rumors. "In caller months, Ukrainian, American, and British alleged accusation 'specialists' person thrown astir assorted fakes astir the wellness of the president," Putin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters successful July. "But it is thing but fakes." CIA Director William Burns besides threw acold h2o connected the rumors, telling the Aspen Security Forum successful July that "there are tons of rumors astir President Putin's wellness and arsenic acold arsenic we tin archer he's wholly excessively healthy."

Putin's power

Almost arsenic soon arsenic Putin launched his Ukraine penetration successful February 2022, and surely since it started going poorly, "there has been ongoing deliberation astir however agelong Putin volition stay successful power, his hypothetical demise an result of failing wellness oregon home governmental ouster," Shawn Cochran writes successful War connected the Rocks.

Certainly, determination is no shortage of people who would beryllium blessed to instrumentality Putin's place.

Abbas Gallyamov, Putin's erstwhile speechwriter, told Khodorkovsky Live successful January that Putin's interior ellipse nary longer sees "Putin arsenic guarantor of their stability," and they personally fearfulness the emergence of Wagner Group mercenary laminitis Yevgeny Prigozhin. Rather than hazard being violently toppled similar Libya's Moammar Gadhafi oregon losing the adjacent election, Putin volition anoint a "trusted underling" arsenic the adjacent president, and "get the accidental to extremity his days calmly" astatine his billion-dollar palace connected the Back Sea, Gallyamov said.

"I deliberation determination are chances Putin could beryllium forced from office," erstwhile Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who quit Russia's United Nations mission successful May implicit the war, told Britain's Daily Mail successful December 2022. "But archetypal helium indispensable beryllium regarded by his ain radical arsenic a loser, arsenic idiosyncratic who lied and made them fools," and "that volition hap lone if helium is genuinely and wide defeated successful Ukraine." If that happens, Bondarev said, Putin's elite "may unit him to spell to slumber and ne'er aftermath up."

So far, Russian nationalists and pro-war subject bloggers person kept their strident criticisms of the Ukraine warfare to the Russian defence ministry and subject generals, not Putin. But 1 salient subject blogger, erstwhile Russian militia commandant Igor Girkin, "heavily implied" successful January that helium would enactment Putin's removal from office, adjacent if specified a connection had "suicidal" consequences, the Institute for the Study of War deliberation vessel reported.

Putin himself "understands that this has been a mess," but "I don't deliberation he's accepted that helium is defeated, due to the fact that the essence of being Putin is ne'er accepting that you've been defeated," subject student Fred Kagan tells CBS News. "The creation present is helping Putin recognize that he's mislaid this round, and it's clip to fold this hand," and that's up to Ukraine's subject and NATO weapons.

"If Putin departs bureau (voluntarily oregon not) with the warfare successful Ukraine ongoing, his successor whitethorn elite to discontinue fighting, but the determination volition not beryllium casual oregon hazard free, and this holds careless of who replaces Putin," Cochran writes astatine War connected the Rocks.

Putin's prospects

So, tin Putin survive? "By immoderate measures, Russia has already mislaid this warfare militarily and politically," Ivan Gomza and Graeme Robertson measure astatine The Washington Post, and "research suggests that starring a state to decision successful warfare is politically costly." But "highly personalistic" dictators similar Putin "are acold little susceptible to losing bureau aft a decision successful war" than democratically elected leaders, and "so agelong arsenic Putin continues to supply sizable idiosyncratic benefits to his adjacent allies, they are apt to bent together, for fearfulness of hanging separately."

Still, "Russia has a past of authorities alteration successful the aftermath of unsuccessful wars," from the Bolshevik Revolution aft the Russo-Japanese War and World War I to the illness of the Soviet Union pursuing its decision successful Afghanistan, Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage constitute successful Foreign Affairs. "Revolutions person occurred successful Russia erstwhile the authorities has failed successful its economical and governmental objectives and has been unresponsive to crises" arsenic its legitimacy is punctured.

"Putin is astatine hazard successful each these categories," Fix and Kimmage add. "Putin's warfare successful Ukraine was meant to beryllium his crowning achievement, a objection of however acold Russia had travel since the illness of the Soviet empire successful 1991," but helium has managed the warfare poorly, and present the country's system is successful trouble. "In the look of these dismal trends, Putin has doubled down connected his errors, each the portion insisting that the warfare is going 'according to plan.'"

Russia's economical and battlefield losses person immoderate speculating that Putin's clasp connected powerfulness is weakening, but he's "more unafraid than astir radical believe," Maria Snegovaya wrote astatine the Journal of Democracy successful April 2022. "Previous Russian subject defeats person brought astir societal and governmental change," but not each of them. In the look of defeat, arsenic with Josef Stalin's nonaccomplishment to conquer Finland successful 1939-40, Russia's subdued elites whitethorn beryllium "unlikely to airs a superior situation to Putin."

And a "debilitated Putin" is not 1 of Russia's top weaknesses, Askold Lozynskyj argues astatine the Kyiv Post. Those are "that it is simply a situation of immoderate 100 captive nations, that its system is not productive, and that owed to its deficiency of fiscal wherewithal its subject mightiness is grossly exaggerated." Putin is "evil," but he's "not delusional," Lozynskyj adds. "He is alert of interior turmoil wrong an empire which helium maintains by unit and repression."

If it becomes wide Ukraine volition not beryllium defeated, the "most likely" script is that Putin leaves office, and a "vicious powerfulness struggle" ensues betwixt assorted factions — pro-war right-wing nationalists seeking a reckoning, authoritarian conservatives committed to the presumption quo, and "semi-democratic" reformers, Alexander J. Motyl counters astatine Foreign Policy. "We don't cognize who volition win, but we tin confidently foretell that the powerfulness conflict volition weaken the authorities and distract Russia from what remains of its warfare effort."