Wisconsin U.S. Senate Election Results 2022: Johnson vs. Barnes - The New York Times

2 years ago 42
  • Last polls are present closed successful Alaska. 5h ago

  • Polls are present closed successful Hawaii. Most polls person closed successful Alaska, but Alaska doesn’t merchandise results until aft its past polls adjacent astatine 1 a.m. Eastern. 6h ago

  • The polls conscionable closed successful Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. 8h ago

  • The polls are present closed successful Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and respective different states. 9h ago

  • The polls conscionable closed successful Arkansas. 9h ago

  • Polls conscionable closed successful 19 states and Washington, D.C. Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. 10h ago

  • The polls conscionable closed successful North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. 10h ago

  • The polls are present closed successful Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and successful parts of Florida and New Hampshire. 11h ago

  • The archetypal polls are closing successful Indiana and Kentucky. 12h ago

Latest results from 6:11 AM ET

94% of votes in

U.S. Senate Candidate

Ron Johnsonincumbent

Mandela Barnes

Republican Rep. 1,331,105 50.6%
Democrat Dem. 1,298,109 49.4%
2,629,214

*Incumbent

Live forecast

Our champion estimation is that Johnson is apt to win.

This is our champion estimation for the result of this race, based connected the places that person reported votes truthful far. Jump to the forecast

Timing of results

Officials were not permitted to statesman processing message ballots until Election Day, and officials said that ballot counting whitethorn instrumentality until Wednesday.

Circle size is proportional to the magnitude each county’s leading campaigner is ahead.

Estimated votes remaining

Estimated remaining votes
Barnes +40 347,579 91% 36,000
Barnes +55 296,134 >95% <5,000
Johnson +25 223,540 94% 13,000
Johnson +10 113,636 94% 7,000
Johnson +12 85,726 94% 6,000
Johnson +9 81,406 90% 9,000
Johnson +6 74,231 94% 5,000
Johnson +42 73,951 >95% <4,000
Johnson +5 65,757 90% 7,000
Johnson +22 61,429 >95% <3,000
Barnes +5 55,823 78% 16,000
Barnes +11 55,105 >95% <3,000
Johnson +20 53,406 95% 3,000
Johnson +16 52,161 >95% 3,000
Barnes +11 47,729 >95% <2,500
Johnson +31 46,561 >95% <2,500
Johnson +22 45,810 95% 3,000
Johnson +19 43,968 94% 3,000
Johnson +34 38,744 >95% <2,000
Johnson +16 38,537 94% 2,000
Johnson +26 35,847 92% 3,000
Barnes +2 33,543 95% <2,000
Johnson +22 32,910 >95% <1,500
Barnes +1.1 28,905 92% 2,000
Johnson +23 28,752 93% 2,000
Johnson +1.7 27,303 93% 2,000
Johnson +24 24,903 93% 2,000
Johnson +34 23,168 93% 2,000
Johnson +28 20,450 >95% <1,000
Johnson +18 20,144 >95% <1,000
Johnson +14 20,067 >95% <1,000
Johnson +29 20,049 93% 1,000
Johnson +43 19,389 94% 1,000
Barnes +10 18,640 >95% <900
Johnson +37 18,491 93% 1,000
Johnson +14 18,022 >95% <900
Johnson +38 17,947 >95% <900
Barnes +4 17,447 94% 1,000
Johnson +0.43 17,295 >95% <900
Johnson +25 17,250 91% 2,000
Johnson +27 13,450 93% 1,000
Johnson +27 13,150 >95% <700
Johnson +5 13,112 >95% <700
Johnson +28 13,093 66% 7,000
Johnson +20 12,251 93% 900
Johnson +41 11,631 >95% <600
Barnes +12 11,596 94% 800
Johnson +37 11,324 95% 600
Johnson +29 10,726 92% 900
Johnson +34 9,900 >95% <500
Johnson +26 9,846 94% 700
Barnes +12 9,266 >95% <500
Johnson +37 9,008 93% 600
Johnson +40 8,687 >95% <400
Johnson +16 8,632 >95% <400
Johnson +50 8,537 >95% <400
Johnson +26 8,351 >95% <400
Johnson +31 8,198 >95% 400
Johnson +18 7,988 >95% <400
Johnson +29 7,342 93% 500
Johnson +30 7,043 >95% <400
Johnson +9 7,000 88% 900
Barnes +12 6,976 >95% <400
Johnson +9 6,976 >95% <400
Johnson +15 6,565 >95% <300
Johnson +36 6,381 >95% <300
Johnson +28 6,108 91% 600
Johnson +34 4,154 >95% <100
Johnson +29 3,299 93% 250
Johnson +27 3,261 >95% <100
Johnson +51 2,518 >95% <100
Barnes +53 1,090 >95% <100

We stopped updating these forecasts astatine 4 a.m. Eastern clip connected Wednesday, Nov. 9.

Our champion estimation is that Johnson is apt to win.

How our estimated borderline has changed truthful far

The lines beneath amusement however the reported borderline (dashed line) compares with our estimated last borderline (solid enactment surrounded by an estimation of uncertainty). As a rule, erstwhile our estimated borderline is dependable successful the beingness of caller ballot data, our forecast is much trustworthy.

Est. margin

Best guess

50% of outcomes

95%

+10 +5 Even +5 +10 +15 9:08 PM +1.3 Reported +1.3 NYT Est.4:05 AM ET

Estimated stock of full votes reported

20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 9:08 PM 94% Rpt.4:05 AM ET

How votes comparison with 2020
Barnes +55 D+53 296,134 >95%
Johnson +42 R+38 73,951 >95%
Johnson +22 R+18 61,429 >95%
Barnes +11 D+14 55,105 >95%
Johnson +16 R+12 52,161 >95%
Barnes +11 D+11 47,729 >95%
Johnson +31 R+27 46,561 >95%
Johnson +34 R+31 38,744 >95%
Johnson +22 R+19 32,910 >95%
Johnson +28 R+27 20,450 >95%
Johnson +18 R+15 20,144 >95%
Johnson +14 R+12 20,067 >95%
Barnes +10 D+9 18,640 >95%
Johnson +14 R+13 18,022 >95%
Johnson +38 R+36 17,947 >95%
Johnson +0.43 D+1.5 17,295 >95%
Johnson +27 R+22 13,150 >95%
Johnson +5 R+5 13,112 >95%
Johnson +41 R+37 11,631 >95%
Johnson +34 R+33 9,900 >95%
Barnes +12 D+14 9,266 >95%
Johnson +40 R+36 8,687 >95%
Johnson +16 R+13 8,632 >95%
Johnson +50 R+46 8,537 >95%
Johnson +26 R+24 8,351 >95%
Johnson +31 R+29 8,198 >95%
Johnson +18 R+15 7,988 >95%
Johnson +30 R+28 7,043 >95%
Barnes +12 D+11 6,976 >95%
Johnson +9 R+8 6,976 >95%
Johnson +15 R+14 6,565 >95%
Johnson +36 R+35 6,381 >95%
Johnson +34 R+31 4,154 >95%
Johnson +27 R+23 3,261 >95%
Johnson +51 R+46 2,518 >95%
Barnes +53 D+64 1,090 >95%

Analyzing the vote

Your usher to the midterm results, from Times reporters

  • Texas Governor ›

    Despite defeat, O’Rourke maintained enactment on the border

    The feared Democratic illness on the Rio Grande didn’t materialize. Beto O’Rourke performed amended than expected successful these majority-Hispanic counties. — Nate Cohn 4h ago

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  • U.S. Senate ›

    What each enactment needs to triumph power of the Senate

    Democrats and Republicans each request to triumph 3 much competitory Senate seats to triumph power of the enclosure (in summation to the races they are expected to triumph astir easily). Here’s the authorities of the closest races: — Lazaro Gamio 5h ago

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  • Pennsylvania Senate ›

    Fetterman up successful counties finished counting

    With much counties astir finished counting, things support looking amended for Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. He’s outperforming Biden crossed the authorities and is presently up 8 points successful counties that were the closest successful 2020. — Alicia Parlapiano 6h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine midnight Eastern successful 2 states

    Alaska has competitory races for some the Senate and the House, neither of which is simply a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. Don’t expect speedy results successful either race; officials successful Alaska won’t decorativeness counting absentee ballots for astir 2 weeks. — Maggie Astor 6h ago

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  • Florida Governor ›

    How Majority-Hispanic counties voted successful Florida

    Gov. DeSantis outperformed Trump successful Florida successful each region that has astir finished counting votes. While the 3 majority-Hispanic counties — Hendry, Miami-Dade and Osceola — shifted the most, Latino turnout tends to driblet much successful the midterms compared with different groups. — Alicia Parlapiano 6h ago

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  • Arizona Senate ›

    Arizona’s Senate contention looks similar a tossup

    The aboriginal ballot successful Arizona has been beardown for Democrat Mark Kelly, but we expect a bully information of the in-person and late-counted message ballot to favour Blake Masters. It could beryllium awhile earlier each votes are counted. — Alicia Parlapiano 7h ago

    election results graphic

  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 11 p.m. Eastern successful 2 states

    In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a beardown Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Aside from that, the main enactment astatine this hr volition beryllium successful the House, with a adjacent contention successful Washington’s 8th District and astatine slightest fractional a twelve successful California. — Maggie Astor 7h ago

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  • Wisconsin Senate ›

    Wisconsin is leaning toward Johnson

    It’s inactive aboriginal successful Wisconsin, but it looks close. In the counties wherever astir of the ballot is in, Senator Ron Johnson is moving up of Trump. — Nate Cohn 7h ago

    election results graphic

  • Kentucky Amendment 2 ›

    Kentuckians look to rebuke restrictive termination amendment

    Kentucky, a solidly reddish state, reelected Rand Paul to the Senate. But truthful far, voters are rejecting an effort to contradict termination rights. However the authorities already bans abortions, and that is improbable to change. — Lazaro Gamio 7h ago

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  • Pennsylvania Senate ›

    Early returns favour Fetterman

    It’s inactive early, but Fetterman is moving up of Biden successful 5 Pennsylvania counties that person reported astir each of their votes. — Nate Cohn 8h ago

    election results graphic

  • The Needle ›

    How to work The Needle charts

    These charts amusement however the reported ballot borderline (the dashed line) compares with our estimated last borderline (the coagulated line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) implicit time. When reported information comes successful that is not what we expected, our exemplary volition update and incorporated this caller data. — Lazaro Gamio 8h ago

    election results graphic

  • Virginia 7th District ›

    Fast counting successful agrarian Virginia counties boosts Vega, Republican candidate

    Rural counties successful Virginia’s 7th territory are counting votes much rapidly than its astir populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. It’s giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an borderline implicit incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could beryllium temporary. Here’s wherever we deliberation votes remain. — Kennedy Elliott 8h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 10 p.m. Eastern successful 5 states

    Nevada is the past large plaything authorities of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, 3 House seats, politician and caput of state. There is besides an unexpectedly competitory Senate contention successful Utah betwixt Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. — Maggie Astor 8h ago

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  • Florida Governor ›

    Shift to the close successful Florida

    The displacement to the close has been melodramatic among counties successful Florida reporting astir each their votes. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden successful 2020 shifted 16 points to the close successful the contention for governor, and 12 points successful the Senate race. — Lazaro Gamio 8h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 9 p.m. Eastern successful 10 states

    Arizona has aggregate races featuring Republicans who person questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and determination is simply a adjacent contention for governor. — Maggie Astor 9h ago

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  • Ohio Senate ›

    Another authorities with misleading aboriginal returns: Ohio

    Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Vance successful the returns, but astir each of the results are aboriginal votes, which we expect to disproportionately favour Democrats. Here’s wherever we deliberation votes remain. — Alicia Parlapiano 9h ago

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  • Georgia Senate ›

    Why aboriginal results whitethorn beryllium misleading successful Georgia

    Senator Raphael Warnock is retired with an aboriginal pb successful Georgia, but it could each beryllium conscionable a mirage. Most of the ballot reporting truthful acold is early, and Democrats are expected to triumph those votes by a ample margin. — Nate Cohn 9h ago

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  • The Needle ›

    The NYT Needle is live

    The Times’s predetermination forecast is present running. We usage aboriginal returns and polling information to estimation successful existent clip the result of the elections for Senate and House control. Here’s however it works › — Nate Cohn 10h ago

    election results graphic

  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 8 p.m. Eastern successful 19 states and D.C.

    Pennsylvania is location to a adjacent Senate contention betwixt Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Michiganders are voting connected termination rights. And Kansas’ Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is successful a choky re-election race, arsenic is Gov. Janet Mills of Maine. — Maggie Astor 10h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 7:30 p.m. Eastern successful 3 states

    Republicans are favored to triumph the unfastened Senate races successful North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats person a better-than-expected day, these are 2 places we mightiness spot grounds of it. We’ll besides beryllium watching competitory House races successful N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. — Maggie Astor 10h ago

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  • Florida Governor ›

    Early ballot successful Miami shows Republican strength

    Gov. Ron DeSantis winning the aboriginal ballot successful Miami-Dade County — which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points conscionable six years agone — is yet different motion of increasing Republican spot among Hispanic voters. — Nate Cohn 10h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls adjacent astatine 7 p.m. Eastern successful six states

    The Georgia Senate race, which could spell to a Dec. 6 runoff, could find which enactment controls the chamber. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents successful the 2nd and 7th districts whitethorn connection aboriginal indications of however the enactment volition fare successful House races overall. — Maggie Astor 11h ago

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  • U.S. House ›

    What’s astatine involvement successful the House

    Republicans indispensable triumph conscionable 19 competitory seats to retake bulk power from the Democrats. To clasp power of the House, Democrats indispensable triumph 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to triumph astir easily). — Alicia Parlapiano 11h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    First polls adjacent astatine 6 p.m. Eastern successful Kentucky and Indiana

    In Kentucky, voters volition determine whether to o.k. a law amendment that would efficaciously guarantee the implementation of a near-total termination ban. In Indiana, a House contention successful the 1st territory leans Democratic, but, if the spot were to flip, it could beryllium an aboriginal motion of a reddish wave. — Maggie Astor 12h ago

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  • U.S. Senate ›

    What’s astatine involvement successful the Senate

    If Democrats clasp onto 2 seats leaning their way, they volition request to triumph 3 further tossup seats to support power of the Senate. Republicans would request conscionable 2 tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. — Lazaro Gamio 13h ago

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  • Results timing ›

    Results successful cardinal Senate races could instrumentality awhile

    Six of the 8 astir competitory Senate races are successful states that did not telephone a victor successful the statesmanlike contention until aft predetermination night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. What we expect this year › — Alicia Parlapiano 18h ago

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  • Early returns

    Be wary of ‘mirages’ connected predetermination night

    Because of the bid successful which antithetic types of ballots are counted, aboriginal returns tin beryllium misleading. In 2020, Virginia’s aboriginal ballot for president favored Republicans, portion Pennsylvania’s skewed toward Democrats. These “mirages” amusement that ballot margins aboriginal successful the nighttime tin alteration significantly. — Lazaro Gamio 18h ago

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls successful astir states volition adjacent by 9 p.m. Eastern

    Results volition statesman coming successful astatine 6 p.m. Eastern arsenic the archetypal polls adjacent successful Indiana and Kentucky, but the gait volition truly prime up with a slew of closings astatine 7 and 8. By 9 p.m., the polls volition person closed successful a bulk of states. — Maggie Astor 18h ago

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About this data Demographic information are based connected the U.S. Census Bureau 2016–2020 American Community Survey five-year estimates and provided by SocialExplorer.com. The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties was utilized to radical counties by size. Historical predetermination results are from The Associated Press and from the Voting and Election Science Team, which analyzed precinct results to find the 2020 statesmanlike ballot for 2022 House districts. “Most competitive” counties correspond those successful which Trump oregon Biden won by 5 points oregon little successful 2020.
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