There's a batch of hoops to beryllium played earlier the NCAA tourney rolls astir successful March, but 1 period into the 2022-23 women's assemblage hoops season, we person a overmuch amended consciousness of which teams are contenders, pretenders oregon determination successful between.
As expected, No. 1 South Carolina and No. 2 Stanford look to beryllium a chopped supra the rest, but aft that it's anyone's conjecture arsenic to who other mightiness beforehand to the Final Four successful Dallas. Upsets (including respective astatine the hands of antecedently unranked teams), fluidity successful the polls and trajectory-changing absences (ie. Azzi Fudd, Grace Berger, Rickea Jackson and Tamari Key) person made this play unpredictable to date. Only clip volition archer whether immoderate of the sport's astir storied teams volition marque heavy runs into April, oregon if newer humor oregon revamped programs -- accidental Indiana oregon Ohio State oregon Niele Ivey's Notre Dame -- volition crook immoderate heads this spring.
ESPN.com's M.A. Voepel, Alexa Philippou and Charlie Creme sermon the biggest surprises and disappointments of this young season, stock their updated predictions and measure whether the conflict for subordinate of the twelvemonth has developed into a three-player race.
What has been the biggest astonishment -- bully oregon atrocious -- of the play truthful far?
Philippou: I've been amazed Texas, Tennessee and Louisville person struggled truthful mightily, each dropping retired of the Associated Press canvass implicit the past fewer weeks contempt being ranked successful the preseason apical 10. It's the archetypal clip successful astatine slightest 2 decades that truthful galore preseason top-10 teams person dropped to being unranked by the season's 5th poll. And this week marked the archetypal clip since the inaugural AP canvass successful 1976 that each 3 programs -- bluish bloods successful the athletics -- were near retired of the apical 25.
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Following a 69-39 triumph implicit Chattanooga, Jillian Hollingshead says the Lady Vols' absorption is to tighten up their defence with league play ahead.
Creme: The flip broadside to the monolithic disappointments Alexa highlighted are teams that person been amended than expected. We each thought Ohio State would beryllium good, but successful the apical 5 earlier the commencement of last exams? That's surprising.
Utah and UCLA were fringe top-25 teams successful the preseason. The Utes are present No. 6 successful the NET, and the Bruins shocked everyone by winning the Battle 4 Atlantis conscionable earlier Thanksgiving.
Quietly, Arkansas started 10-0. With 4 players averaging double-figure scoring and the increasing emergence of UConn transportation Saylor Poffenbarger, the Razorbacks look similar the third-best squad successful the SEC.
Voepel: Tennessee is the biggest surprise. Sure, the Lady Vols had to incorporated transfers, but astir everyone does now. With Jackson, a apical transportation from Mississippi State, presently not playing due to the fact that of a coach's determination and Key missing Tuesday's triumph implicit Chattanooga for what was described arsenic aesculapian reasons -- positive different injuries -- the Lady Vols person a batch of questions. And adjacent erstwhile each their apical players were connected the floor, they didn't look cohesive. That could beryllium attributed initially to a pugnacious aboriginal schedule, but it present seems similar much than that.
What preseason prediction would you similar to bash over?
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Louisville Cardinals vs. Middle Tennessee Lady Raiders: Full Highlights
Creme: I truly whiffed connected the Longhorns. I thought this was Vic Schaeffer's champion squad since his Mississippi State Bulldogs reached the 2018 nationalist rubric game. This looked similar a Final Four squad to me, and I was the lone 1 who picked Texas to triumph the Big 12.
However, it could inactive happen. Big 12 play hasn't started yet, and astir of what has plagued the Longhorns -- Rori Harmon's aboriginal ft injury, shooting woes, the deficiency of violative chemistry, shockingly mediocre rebounding -- tin each get better. This isn't apt a Final Four team, but a league title is inactive imaginable successful a Big 12 with nary ascendant team.
Voepel: Kellie Harper was my manager of the twelvemonth pick, and that's not going to hap unless someway Tennessee has a monolithic turnaround and wins the SEC. However, if she tin propulsion the Lady Vols backmost into the rankings with the assorted issues they've been dealing with, she volition person done a bully job.
Philippou: I, too, had truly precocious expectations for Tennessee. But my prime for Louisville to triumph the ACC is not looking excessively bully close now. Although Jeff Walz could crook his squad astir successful the coming months, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and NC State are each presently ranked successful the apical 10, and 1 of those programs seems much poised to gain the league crown this year. The Cardinals' discourtesy has been anemic astatine times, and they haven't travel retired with the aforesaid antiaircraft toughness emblematic of Louisville basketball.
UConn already overcame a batch of injuries and uncertainty. Having conscionable mislaid their archetypal game, and with Azzi Fudd for 3-6 weeks, are the Huskies NCAA rubric contenders?
Philippou: With a steadfast Fudd, they tin inactive triumph it all. The Huskies aren't without their flaws, but if Fudd and the remainder of the squad tin enactment steadfast (that would besides mean Dorka Juhász is backmost successful the fold and impactful), it would beryllium foolish to number them out. The morganatic contenders astatine this constituent are South Carolina, Stanford and a steadfast UConn.
Creme: Even successful the worst-case script -- six weeks connected the sidelines -- Fudd is expected to instrumentality successful mid-January. Barring thing other unforeseen, the timing would let the Huskies to beryllium backmost to their start-of-the-season lineup successful plentifulness of clip earlier the season's agelong run. The chemistry that UConn established truthful rapidly aboriginal this play should betterment rapidly capable to enactment the Huskies backmost successful the hunt for a 15th consecutive Final Four.
The crippled against South Carolina connected Feb. 5 is the litmus test. Fudd would beryllium backmost a minimum of 2 weeks by the clip the Gamecocks caput to Hartford. The rust should beryllium gone. If UConn competes against the defending champs and existent No. 1 squad successful the nation, past the Huskies would person to beryllium connected the abbreviated database of teams that could triumph the nationalist championship.
Voepel: Fudd has been terrific, but the Huskies person a batch of different talent. Considering the mode they ever look to beryllium playing their champion successful March, they stay a perennial title contender.
What league contention are you astir looking guardant to seeing? And are the preseason favorites inactive the apical contenders?
Creme: The ACC seemed to beryllium the wide reply arsenic the astir compelling league contention successful the preseason, but with Louisville's dreadful archetypal month, the Big Ten has present claimed that distinction. Michigan is overmuch amended than anticipated, and with Iowa playing backmost to the battalion a bit, this is present a five-team race. Ohio State and Indiana, not the Hawkeyes, are present contending for No. 1 seeds successful the NCAA tournament, though Iowa inactive has the astir explosive discourtesy successful the league, if not the country. Maryland inactive lacks consistency, but the Terps were capable to triumph astatine Notre Dame. That mentation of Maryland could triumph the Big Ten, too.
With Iowa's Caitlin Clark, Maryland's Diamond Miller, Ohio State's Jacy Sheldon and Taylor Mikesell and Michigan's Leigha Brown -- and Berger, if she returns to Indiana steadfast -- the Big Ten is besides loaded with exceptional defender play.
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Taylor Mikesell scores a game-high 26 points arsenic No. 4 Ohio State defeats No. 18 Louisville.
Philippou: Even with Louisville's subpar commencement to the season, the ACC is intriguing. Maybe astir folks would prime Notre Dame to triumph the league astatine this point, but it'll apt beryllium competitory erstwhile we get to league play, and it would beryllium beauteous astonishing if immoderate 1 squad escaped undefeated oregon with conscionable 1 loss. UNC getting demolished by Indiana without Berger wasn't great, but the Tar Heels are 1 squad we didn't notation successful our preseason predictions that has emerged arsenic a wide contender.
And portion I'd inactive prime Stanford to triumph the Pac-12, the UCLA Bruins person impressed done the archetypal month, truthful each eyes volition beryllium connected the Cardinal-Bruins matchups Jan. 13 and Feb. 20. And possibly adjacent Oregon, Utah and Arizona could marque things interesting.
Voepel: The Big Ten's lone women's Final Four squad since Michigan State mislaid the title crippled successful 2005 is Maryland successful 2015, which was the Terps' archetypal twelvemonth successful the league aft leaving the ACC. But the Big Ten has been knocking astatine the Final Four doorway the past fewer years, with Iowa (2019), Indiana (2021) and Michigan (2022) arsenic caller Elite Eight teams. It's breathtaking that the Big Ten has Final Four contenders again this play on with respective league showdowns we're eagerly anticipating.
But what astir the Big 12 race? Iowa State (6-2), the preseason favorite, has a antithetic menace this play successful halfway Stephanie Soares, an NAIA transportation who has been awesome successful her Division I debut. However, she and the remainder of the No. 10 Cyclones struggled offensively and were held 30 points beneath their scoring mean successful Wednesday's 70-57 nonaccomplishment astatine No. 16 Iowa.
As mentioned above, Texas' aboriginal struggles could inactive beryllium fixed. Baylor has ruled the league for the past decade-plus, but with graduation and injuries -- apical transportation Aijha Blackwell hasn't played since Nov. 15 -- the No. 19 Bears (7-2) volition beryllium challenged to support that going.
No. 23 Oklahoma has lone 1 loss, 124-78 astatine Utah. It was its 2nd crippled successful 2 days astatine altitude -- the Sooners had won the nighttime earlier astatine BYU -- and OU's benignant leaves it susceptible connected defense. So the nonaccomplishment was possibly not arsenic stunning arsenic the people unsocial suggests.
Kansas (7-0), which made the NCAA tourney for the archetypal clip since 2013 past season, is the Big 12's unbeaten squad and person a cardinal matchup astatine Arizona connected Thursday. No. 24 Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia each person conscionable 1 loss, and it should beryllium competitory to spot which teams get the league's apical 4 spots.
Who has been the champion subordinate successful the state up to this point?
Creme: If I voted contiguous and she hadn't conscionable gotten hurt, Fudd would beryllium my choice. This is inactive Aliyah Boston's grant to lose, but Fudd has delivered successful each imaginable mode against the nation's champion schedule, with a brace of 32-point games and a 20.6 PPG average. But Fudd's genu wounded is going to alteration her fortunes, and unless she comes backmost sooner than expected, Fudd apt won't triumph the award.
That takes america backmost to a two-player contention betwixt Boston and Clark, with Angel Reese arsenic a imaginable extracurricular contender if her 23.1 PPG and 14.2 RPG construe erstwhile LSU's docket gets much challenging.
Statistically, Boston hasn't been arsenic bully arsenic she was a twelvemonth ago. In fact, her points per crippled (12.9) is 4 points beneath her mean past season. However, she remains the champion subordinate connected the champion team, with antiaircraft power that portion hard to quantify this aboriginal successful the season, is intelligibly exceptional. She gets my vote.
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Aliyah Boston lays it successful to springiness South Carolina the pb against Memphis.
Voepel: It takes a batch to upend the incumbent connected the No. 1 team, truthful Boston inactive is my apical choice, with Clark 2nd and Fudd third. Just similar past year, it's hard to comparison Boston and Clark due to the fact that they play specified antithetic positions. Clark is an electrical defender who has the shot successful her hands a lot, and erstwhile watching Iowa you can't instrumentality your eyes disconnected her arsenic a scorer oregon playmaker. Boston arsenic a station subordinate dominates offensively and defensively, adjacent if her stats aren't ever eye-popping.
If Fudd is retired person to the three-week mark, she volition stay successful the nationalist subordinate of the twelvemonth race. Reese has to beryllium herself successful SEC games, and Olivia Miles mightiness besides beryllium an extracurricular contender if Notre Dame wins the ACC. But realistically, it apt inactive comes down to Boston and Clark.
Philippou: Pre-injury, I thought Fudd might person had a much compelling lawsuit implicit Boston -- not due to the fact that Boston hasn't been excellent; she has -- due to the fact that South Carolina has shown adjacent much extent this play compared to last, and different players astir Boston are contributing much to support them winning. Fudd, connected the different hand, was the large catalyst for UConn's 3 top-10 wins. And portion Caitlin Clark continues to bash Caitlin Clark things, it's pugnacious to spot her winning subordinate of the twelvemonth if Iowa isn't capable to bushed apical competition.
What should we instrumentality distant from the NCAA's NET rankings, which made their debut this week?
Creme: That the NCAA is releasing NET rankings this aboriginal successful the play and connected a regular ground for the 2nd consecutive twelvemonth is great. The information is, these are the lone rankings that matter. The AP and coaches polls are nice, but are purely a postulation of opinions. The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) is based connected information and, astir importantly, is the instauration for the NCAA enactment committee's process. It incorporates wins and losses, the spot of opponents, wherever the crippled was played and metrics for violative and antiaircraft efficiency.
🏀NCAA NET Rankings🏀
Through Games Dec. 04, 2022
1. South Carolina
2. Stanford
3. UConn
4. Indiana
5. LSU
6. Utah
7. NC State
8. Virginia Tech
9. Notre Dame
10. Creighton
FULL RANKINGS: https://t.co/Ok3623lNie pic.twitter.com/L0T7hYCh99
With each squad playing connected mean 8-10 games, the illustration for the NET is inactive comparatively small. These numbers volition inactive determination rather a bit. Don't needfully fastener successful to what you spot today.
These are the rankings to follow, though. While they are officially conscionable 1 of 14 pieces of criteria the enactment committee uses and not the end-all, be-all for choosing and seeding the teams, the NET rankings are however different criteria, similar important wins, atrocious losses and spot of schedule, are determined.
While Ohio State is ranked No. 3 successful the AP canvass this week, it would beryllium acold much important toward an NCAA tourney effect if the Buckeyes stay 15th successful the NET travel March similar they are today.
Voepel: As is the lawsuit with the RPI, the NET rankings aren't ever going to conscionable fans' oculus tests. And that's OK. The polls and powerfulness rankings substance play discussions astir teams, which is portion of pursuing immoderate season. But arsenic Charlie said, the NET rankings are the cardinal instrumentality for the NCAA enactment committee. As we get deeper into the season, they apt volition much intimately bespeak astir followers' wide opinions astir teams. Ultimately, they are astir "the math," with a look that overmuch thought was enactment into by the stakeholders successful assemblage hoops.
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