6:22 PM ET
Bill ConnellyESPN Staff Writer
- Bill Connelly is simply a unit writer for ESPN.com.
A emblematic World Cup tin consciousness similar a marathon, but this 1 feels similar a sprint. After a nonstop, 13-day radical signifier ends connected Friday, determination are nary days disconnected earlier the circular of 16 begins with Netherlands vs. USA and Australia vs. Argentina connected Saturday.
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Therefore, we shouldn't hold to preview the knockout rounds. While the creation paper continues to capable in, let's speech astir each qualifying team's biggest strengths and weaknesses: basically, the reasons they advanced, the reasons they could marque a tally and the fatal flaws that volition astir apt travel them up astatine immoderate point.
Editor's Note: As teams officially suffice for the circular of 16, we'll adhd them to the list, truthful cheque backmost Thursday nighttime and Friday nighttime for accusation and updates connected the teams from Groups E, F, G and H -- though we person included Brazil (Group G) and Portugal (Group H) arsenic their places successful the last-16 are already secured -- that punch their tickets to the knockouts.
Let's go!
Argentina (first place, Group C)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 12%
Round of 16 opponent: Australia (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
Why they volition triumph it all: They've recovered from losing to Saudi Arabia. As unthinkable arsenic the Saudis' 2-1 triumph was past Tuesday, it was a wide and evident "sports are dumb sometimes" outcome. Argentina attempted 15 shots worthy 2.3 xG, and Saudi Arabia attempted 3 worthy 0.2, but the second trumped the former, and the Saudis -- to their recognition -- defended wonderfully down the stretch.
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That lucifer astir ruined two matches; manager Lionel Scaloni made a ton of lineup changes for what turned retired to beryllium a dire and unimpressive show against Mexico. Somehow a lineup with Leo Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Angel Di Maria attempted lone 5 shots worthy 0.3 xG, but Messi's fantastic long-range extremity successful the 64th infinitesimal allowed them to relax. They saw disconnected Mexico, past dominated Poland, 2-0, successful a lucifer that was person to astir 4-0 than 2-1.
There was hostility and determination were unforced errors, but they finished the radical signifier atop Group C, with the second-best xG differential successful the tourney to day (behind lone France). Their defence hardly allowed immoderate decent looks implicit 3 matches, and they looked the portion of the contender they were expected to beryllium each along.
Why they won't: Boy, the vibes got acheronian for a minute, didn't they? Indeed, contempt the fluky quality of the Saudi Arabia loss, Scaloni made 5 changes to his lineup to bring a show boost to a broadside that astir apt didn't really request one. They played acold worse, according to some the stat enactment and the eyeballs. Messi bailed them out, and they whitethorn person gotten a semipermanent boost with however good younger guys similar Alexis Mac Allister and Julian Alvarez played against Poland. But different bout with that benignant of panic apt won't beryllium rewarded.
Australia (second place, Group D)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: Round of 16 opponent: Argentina (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
Why they volition triumph it all: They instrumentality their chances. If we were being peculiarly cynical (or possibly realistic), we would telephone the Socceroos lucky. In 3 radical signifier matches, they attempted 21 shots worthy conscionable 1.8 xG but pulled 3 goals from them and stole a brace of 1-0 victories from Tunisia and Denmark. They attempted less than fractional the fig of shots (21) arsenic their opponents (50) successful the radical stage, but advanced.
1:10
Rob Dawson reacts to Australia's 1-0 triumph implicit Denmark and speaks astir their chances successful the World Cup knockout stages.
However, 1 man's fortunate is another's clinical. All 3 of their goals -- Craig Goodwin's counter-strike against France, Mitchell Duke's flick of a header against Tunisia and Mathew Leckie's weaving antagonistic against Denmark -- were beautifully taken. Against some Tunisia and Denmark, they cluttered shooting lanes and near their opponents with low-percentage opportunities portion maximizing the information they created from minimal looks. If you don't request galore chances to score, you don't request galore chances to propulsion an upset.
Why they won't: Okay, fine, they're lucky. You don't get outshot much than 2-to-1, with the second-worst xG differential (per-match) of the 32 teams, and beforehand precise far. They got their doors blown disconnected by France, they allowed Tunisia to effort 3 of the match's 4 astir high-value shots (per xG) portion scoring connected a low-percentage flick, and they person completed conscionable 73% of their walk attempts, 2nd lowest successful the contention (ahead of Iran, who inactive attempted mode much shots and created acold much changeable value). The upsets were awesome to watch, arsenic was the giddy reaction of Australia fans some successful the stands and backmost astatine home. But this tally of luck isn't going to past 4 much matches.
Brazil (qualified from Group G)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 25%
Round of 16 opponent: TBD
1:12
Luis Miguel Echegaray reveals whether helium favours Brazil oregon France arsenic the 2 sides successful the World Cup knockouts.
Why they volition triumph it all: Party successful the beforehand (eventually), veterans successful the back. Hiring a blimpish manager (Tite) to pb a squad afloat of flamboyant attackers tin easy backfire without the close equilibrium and antheral management. You play distant from your strengths, the attackers get frustrated, and things autumn apart.
In his six-plus years successful complaint of the Selecao, Tite has mostly recovered said balance. Brazil person allowed conscionable 27 goals and mislaid lone 5 times successful his 78 matches successful charge. Four of the 5 losses were by one-nil margins -- which hints astatine however things look erstwhile they spell wrong, but they don't spell incorrect often.
The seasoned basal of defenders Thiago Silva (38) and Marquinhos (28) and midfielder Casemiro (30) was an unsolvable puzzle for some Serbia and Switzerland, who combined to effort conscionable 11 shots worthy 0.48 xG, putting nary connected target. And arsenic some opponents grew bushed and frustrated, the Brazilian onslaught yet kicked in, and they booked their last-16 spot with 2 wins. What has worked for six years nether Tite has worked successful Qatar.
Why they won't: The onslaught runs done Neymar (who's wounded erstwhile again). Brazil overwhelmed Serbia with 19 shots and 2 goals successful the 2nd half. The shot was perpetually astatine Neymar's feet -- helium had the astir touches of immoderate non-defender -- and the eventual goals, some from Richarlison, felt inevitable.
Neymar near the lucifer aft 80 minutes, however, aft suffering damaged ankle ligaments. Without their focal point, Brazil resorted to aimless crossing against Switzerland (25 of them, with lone a 16% completion rate) and attempted lone 13 shots. They yet took power with a scruffy precocious extremity from Casemiro, but the onslaught wasn't astir arsenic creaseless without its halfway of gravity, whose instrumentality to the contention is unknown.
England (first place, Group B)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 9%
Round of 16 opponent: Senegal (Sunday, 2 p.m. ET)
0:40
England fans astatine Boxpark by Wembley Stadium observe the 2 goals aboriginal successful the 2nd half.
Why they volition triumph it all: Set pieces. They were England's concealed limb successful the 2018 World Cup, wherever they scored six set-piece goals (four from corners) successful 7 matches, 2 of which enactment them up successful some the quarterfinals and semifinals.
They've lone got 2 specified goals truthful acold -- 1 from Bukayo Saka connected a country against Iran and 1 from a scorching Marcus Rashford escaped footwear that opened the scoring against Wales -- but it remains a wide vantage arsenic they've created 10 shots from acceptable pieces, and opponents person yet to effort one. (The US created 7 corner-kick opportunities but got nary prime looks from them.)
When you've got arsenic overmuch endowment arsenic anyone successful the competition, and you've got a cheat codification for creating coagulated scoring chances, you're successful large shape.
Why they won't: The subs are doing excessively well? It's an unusual critique, admittedly, but the England onslaught is successful a unusual spot astatine the moment. The Three Lions scored 9 goals successful the radical signifier with Gareth Southgate's first-choice attacking trio of Harry Kane, Saka and Raheem Sterling performing comparatively well, scoring 3 goals and creating a combined 2.18 expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) successful a full of 512 minutes. That's a complaint of 0.38 combined xG+xA per 90 minutes. The trio of Rashford, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, however, combined for a torrid 5 goals and 3.37 xG+xA successful conscionable 271 minutes, 1.12 per 90.
History suggests Southgate volition instrumentality to his guns erstwhile it comes to lineup selections, and having prolific seat players who are commanding a higher workload is simply a large occupation to have. But it tin inactive beryllium a occupation if you aren't putting your astir in-form and effectual lineup connected the transportation arsenic the matches summation successful importance. The past happening you privation to bash is permission disposable goals unclaimed portion trying to bring the World Cup trophy home.
France (first place, Group D)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 11%
Round of 16 opponent: Poland (Sunday, 10 a.m. ET)
Why they volition triumph it all: Kylian Mbappe. France rapidly secured advancement to the knockout rounds by taking attraction of Australia and Denmark by a combined 6-2 -- which allowed them to tract an extremely rotation-heavy squad against Tunisia -- but that people enactment doesn't bash justness to the levels of domination successful those 2 matches. They outshot their opponents by a combined 44-14 and created 6.8 xG portion allowing conscionable 1.2; portion Australia were evidently outmanned, Denmark were considered a World Cup sleeper by galore and could negociate conscionable 2 changeable attempts successful the archetypal 67 minutes.
At the bosom of France's success, of course, has been Mbappe, the FIFA Young Player Award victor astatine the past World Cup and the existent front-runner for Golden Ball victor astatine this one. As ESPN's Ryan O'Hanlon laid retired aft 2 matches, the champion subordinate successful the satellite is playing immoderate of his best-ever shot astatine the champion imaginable time.
1:56
Julien Laurens doesn't clasp backmost arsenic helium rips into Didier Deschamps and the French players aft their 1-0 nonaccomplishment to Tunisia successful Qatar.
Why they won't: The incorrect benignant of conservatism. The modern crippled is 1 of pressing and possession, and it would marque consciousness that astir of the tourney favorites bash those things well. There are presently 8 teams with betting likelihood of +1400 oregon amended to triumph the World Cup, and six of them presently fertile successful the apical 8 successful passes allowed per antiaircraft enactment (PPDA, a communal measurement of antiaircraft intensity), each averaging nether 12.0 PPDA. Brazil (12.2, 11th successful the competition) is close. France (18.5, 26th) is not.
For each of their absurd talent, they were downright passive against Denmark, allowing the Danes to mean 6.4 passes per possession and extremity 50% of their possessions successful the attacking third. This opened up abstraction for modulation attacks -- thing that the impossibly accelerated Mbappe and his teammates tin thrive successful astatine times -- but it besides raised a question: How volition the French fare among the champion possession teams successful the tract if they can't (or won't) instrumentality the shot distant from them?
Netherlands (first place, Group A)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 5%
Round of 16 opponent: USA (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Why they volition triumph it all: They crook you over. Louis van Gaal's Dutch squad is active. They pb the contention with the fewest passes allowed per antiaircraft enactment (9.3) and contempt starring for the bulk of each group-stage match, they started 29 possessions successful the attacking 3rd to opponents' 17. Midfielder Frenkie de Jong leads the squad successful shot recoveries, but the unit is simply a full-team effort: Netherlands person commanded 57% of wide touches successful the attacking 3rd with a 57% possession rate.
They've got the earthy antiaircraft endowment -- Virgil Van Dijk, Nathan Ake, Jurrien Timber, Matthijs de Ligt -- to safeguard them portion pressing heavy (goalkeeper Andries Noppert has been excellent, too), and they enactment the shot successful much unsafe areas than opponents.
1:01
Mark Ogden explains wherefore helium deliberation Senegal are the stronger of the 2 sides to beforehand from Group A astatine the World Cup.
Why they won't: nary creativity. For specified an progressive team, the Dutch definite are stolid successful attack. Despite each that possession successful unsafe areas, they managed conscionable 10 shots worthy 0.7 xG against Senegal and two worthy 0.1 against Ecuador; they were fortunate to triumph the erstwhile lucifer and gully the latter, and if Cody Gakpo hadn't scored with his lone changeable successful some matches, they wouldn't have.
Gakpo, the progressively sought-after PSV Eindhoven attacker, has scored 3 goals from 4 shots worthy conscionable 0.3 xG. The remainder of his teammates person scored conscionable 2 goals from 21 shots worthy 2.5. They neither make high-quality oregon high-volume shots - they averaged conscionable 0.3 large chances created ("a concern wherever a subordinate should reasonably beryllium expected to score," arsenic defined by StatsPerform) successful the radical stage; lone 2 teams averaged fewer, and that volition yet go a wide contented if it does not change.
This makes their matchup with the United States an absorbing one: Both teams person a batch of the aforesaid strengths and aforesaid weaknesses.
Poland
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: Round of 16 opponent: France
Why they volition triumph it all: They've got the hottest goalkeeper successful the competition. StatPerform's Goals Prevented measurement compares the goals you've allowed to the post-shot xG worth of the shots opponents enactment connected your goal. Based solely connected that xG figure, Poland should person allowed astir six goals successful the radical stage; they allowed lone 2 due to the fact that Wojciech Szczesny stood connected his damn head. He stopped penalties from some Messi and Saudi Arabia's Salem Al Dawsari, helium stopped close-range efforts from Al Dawsari and Argentina's Rodrigo De Paul, and helium saved 18 full shots connected extremity successful 3 matches.
Allow adjacent 3 goals alternatively of 2 - which would person inactive been overachieving - and Poland would beryllium connected a level location close now.
Why they won't: They can't make opportunities for 1 of the champion strikers successful the world. In 19 matches with Barcelona this season, Robert Lewandowski has averaged 4.5 shots, 0.8 xG and 1.1 goals per 90 minutes. In 3 World Cup matches, he's averaged 2.3 shots, 0.6 xG and 0.3 goals. He scored his archetypal ever World Cup extremity against Saudi Arabia, but missed connected a precocious spot successful the aforesaid lucifer and had a punishment saved against Mexico. Those were his lone 3 shots connected extremity successful 3 matches. He hardly touched the shot against Argentina and attempted zero shots.
Lewandowski isn't Poland's lone high-level player, of people -- 14 different members of the roster play for clubs successful Europe's Big Five leagues -- but erstwhile your headliner is neither getting the work helium needs nor taking vantage of the opportunities helium gets, your ceiling isn't going to beryllium precise high. He could unleash a chapeau instrumentality astatine immoderate time, but if helium couldn't bash it against Saudi Arabia, it's just to presume the likelihood aren't precocious that helium volition bash it against France.
Portugal (qualified from Group H)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 8%
Round of 16 opponent: TBD
Why they volition triumph it all: Where passing is harder, Portugal is better. One would presume that a squad featuring Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Raphael Guerreiro and Joao Cancelo would beryllium 1 of the much originative successful the competition, and that has played retired frankincense far. They person been fortunate successful the finishing section -- they created shots worthy 3.3 xG successful their archetypal 2 matches but scored 5 goals from them, and they scored 1 of their goals erstwhile Cristiano Ronaldo whiffed connected a Fernandes transverse (which fooled the Uruguayan goalkeeper) -- but they inactive created plentifulness of chances, and they made definite that they were the lone squad regularly completing passes into unsafe areas.
Pass completion complaint into the attacking third:
Portugal 81%, Ghana 57% (Portugal won, 3-2)
Portugal 79%, Uruguay 64% (Portugal won, 2-0)
Fernandes and Silva person some completed 40 passes into the last 3rd (with a ridiculous 86% completion rate), and the stalwart Portuguese defense, led by center-backs Ruben Dias on with veterans Danilo Pereira (31) and Pepe (39), has fended disconnected astir threatening buildups. Even 1 of Ghana's goals came connected a transverse that a defender deflected.
Why they won't: You person to clasp onto leads to triumph it all. When their archetypal 2 matches were tied, Portugal dominated, controlling 69% of possession, attempting 19 shots worthy 2.0 xG, allowing conscionable six shots worthy 0.7 and scoring 3 times. Dominant.
Once they were ahead, however, they sacrificed a unsafe magnitude of control. They allowed 2 goals to Ghana (one to necktie the lucifer astatine 1-1, 1 to marque it 3-2), and successful those 2 matches their possession complaint fell to 45% with opponents attempting 14 shots to their seven. While Brazil's Tite has pulled disconnected a coagulated equilibrium of conservatism and attacking flair, 1 could reason that Portugal's Fernando Santos hasn't rather recovered that aforesaid balance.
1:46
Mark Ogden gives his investigation connected the 2-0 triumph implicit Uruguay successful Group H that takes Portugal into the circular of 16 astatine the World Cup.
Senegal (second place, Group A)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 1%
Round of 16 opponent: England
Why they volition triumph it all: transition. Tuesday's Senegal vs. Ecuador lucifer pitted 2 of the champion modulation teams successful the competition. In their archetypal 2 matches, Ecuador had scored 2 of their 3 goals from what I telephone "transition possessions" -- possessions opening extracurricular of the attacking 3rd and lasting 20 oregon less seconds -- and had not allowed opponents a azygous changeable successful those possessions. But against Senegal, the footwear was connected the different foot. Senegal created 2 aboriginal high-quality modulation opportunities and allowed Ecuador none.
That's been the communicative of the contention for Senegal. Their xG differential successful modulation possessions is +0.8, fourth-best among teams successful the knockout rounds, and portion they were decent successful modulation onslaught (one goal, 0.96 xG), their superior spot was successful wholly snuffing retired opponents' opportunities. The antiaircraft spine of keeper Edouard Mendy, center-backs Kalidou Koulibaly and Abdou Diallo and antiaircraft midfielder Nampalys Mendy is arsenic stout arsenic conscionable astir immoderate successful the World Cup.
Why they won't: You've got to finish. When the quality came down that prima Sadio Mane was going to miss the World Cup owed to injury, it was just to wonderment however the heck Senegal was going to enactment the shot successful the net.
It's inactive just to wonder, too. While they handled Qatar with ease, and they attempted plentifulness of shots against higher-level opponents Netherlands and Ecuador, the finishing so lacked. They attempted 28 non-penalty shots worthy 2.14 xG successful those 2 matches but scored conscionable erstwhile from them, via a deflection to Koulibaly connected a escaped kick. (They besides scored connected an Ismaila Sarr punishment against Ecuador.) They person been decent astatine generating set-piece opportunities, but successful unfastened play they are creating astir nary menace against coagulated opposition.
United States (second place, Group B)
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 1%
Round of 16 opponent: Netherlands
Why they volition triumph it all: The midfield is relentless. Wales couldn't determination the shot done the midfield, truthful they started booting long-balls to a gangly forward. Jude Bellingham had 10 touches successful the archetypal 13 minutes but lone 40 thereafter arsenic England recovered passing lanes done the midfield untenable. (Mason Mount had lone 45 full touches successful 90 minutes.) Iran lone created 60 full touches successful the attacking 3rd until Weston McKennie went disconnected the tract successful the 65 minutes. (They created 64 successful the last 25 minutes.)
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Relentless moving and pressing from the trio of McKennie (24), Yunus Musah (20) and skipper Tyler Adams (23) and fullbacks Sergino Dest (22) and Antonee Robinson (25) has made advancing the shot into unsafe areas astir intolerable and allowed the U.S. to power ample portions of games -- granted, without generating a ample fig of prime scoring opportunities -- against not lone Wales and Iran but besides England. And if they were capable to power Bellingham and Mount, they tin power astir of the midfields successful this competition.
Why they won't: Matches are 90 minutes long. One occupation with relentless moving and pressing: It wears you out, particularly erstwhile immoderate of your astir important players came into the World Cup with caller injuries and fittingness concerns. McKennie is lone averaging 69.3 minutes per match, Dest 78.0. And arsenic these players statesman to tire, the Americans' effectiveness vanishes.
xG, archetypal 60 min: USA 2.19, opponents 0.91 (actual score: US 2-0)
xG, past 30 min: opponents 2.23, USA 0.35 (actual score: hostile 1-0)
Fatigue has so constricted definite cardinal players, and manager Gregg Berhalter's substitution decisions (both timing and personnel) person been, to enactment it diplomatically, shaky. When things determination into crippled absorption mode, the U.S. rapidly frays. And the fatigue isn't going to abruptly get amended arsenic the tourney progresses.
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