Xi Putin meeting: What to expect from China-Russia talks

Chinese President Xi Jinping is embarking connected his archetypal travel to Russia since the state invaded Ukraine past year, and is acceptable to beryllium down for talks with President Vladimir Putin.

Our Russia exertion Steve Rosenberg and China analogous Stephen McDonell person been considering what each broadside seeks to summation from the talks, and what we cognize astir the narration betwixt the 2 countries.

Imagine you're Vladimir Putin.

You've started a warfare that hasn't gone to plan; you're up to your eyeballs successful sanctions; and present the International Criminal Court has issued an apprehension warrant for warfare crimes with your sanction connected it.

It's astatine times similar these you request a friend.

President Xi erstwhile called President Putin his "best friend". The 2 person overmuch successful common: they are some authoritarian leaders, and some clasp the thought of a "multi-polar world" devoid of US domination.

In Moscow they're expected to motion an statement connected "deepening the broad partnership" betwixt their 2 countries.

The Chinese president's authorities sojourn is simply a wide motion of enactment for Russia - and its president - astatine a clip erstwhile the Kremlin is nether aggravated planetary pressure.

And Russia's narration with China is cardinal to withstanding that.

"Putin is gathering his ain bloc. He doesn't spot the West anymore - and helium ne'er volition again," believes writer Dmitry Muratov, a erstwhile Nobel Peace Prize laureate.

"So, Putin's looking for allies and trying to marque Russia portion of a communal fortress with China, arsenic good arsenic with India, immoderate parts of Latin America and Africa. Putin is gathering his anti-Western world."

In this "anti-Western world", Moscow is heavy reliant connected Beijing - present much than ever, arsenic the warfare rages successful Ukraine.

"War has go the organising rule of Russian home politics, overseas argumentation and economical policy. There is an obsession with destroying Ukraine," concludes Alexander Gabuev, a elder chap astatine the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"For that you request arms, wealth and an economical lifeline. China provides Russia with, astatine least, components for arms, and civilian exertion that tin beryllium utilized for subject purposes. It decidedly provides money."

To antagonistic Western sanctions, and to enactment up the Russian economy, Russia has been boosting commercialized with China, chiefly successful the vigor sector. Expect oil, state and vigor pipelines to beryllium connected the docket astatine the Putin-Xi talks.

But, erstwhile again, ideate you're Putin. One twelvemonth agone you and Xi proclaimed that your concern has "no limits". If that's truly the case, mightiness you expect China present to assistance you retired successful Ukraine, by supplying Russia with lethal assistance and facilitating a subject triumph for Moscow? The US claims that China is considering doing conscionable that. Beijing denies it.

As they accidental successful Russia, "there's nary harm wishing for something" - but it doesn't mean it's going to happen. If there's 1 happening the past twelvemonth has shown it is that the "no-limits partnership" does person limits. Up to this constituent Beijing has seemingly been reluctant to supply nonstop subject assistance to Moscow, for fearfulness of triggering secondary sanctions successful the West against Chinese companies. As acold arsenic Beijing is concerned: atrocious Russia… it's China first.

That precise constituent was made precise bluntly precocious connected a Russian authorities TV speech show.

"Ahead of President Xi's sojourn to Moscow, immoderate experts present person been overexcited, elated even," noted subject pundit Mikhail Khodarenok.

"But China tin person lone 1 ally: China itself. China tin lone person 1 acceptable of interests: pro-Chinese ones. Chinese overseas argumentation is utterly devoid of altruism."

Officially Xi Jinping's sojourn to Russia is to beforehand bilateral ties betwixt 2 neighbours and surely these governments accidental they are becoming ever closer.

There are agreements to beryllium signed, meals to beryllium had, photograph opportunities to beryllium staged.

All governments person specified visits, truthful wherefore each the attraction connected this one?

Well, for one, this is the person of 1 of the world's 2 large superpowers visiting an state - who happens to beryllium the idiosyncratic who has unleashed a bloody penetration of different state successful Europe - successful 2023.

Many analysts person pondered what China mightiness bash if it looks similar Russia is facing a clear, humiliating decision connected the battlefield.

The Chinese authorities says it is neutral. Would it conscionable measurement backmost and fto that happen, oregon commencement pumping successful weapons to springiness the Russian service a amended edge?

After Xi arrives successful Moscow, helium and his Russian counterpart whitethorn talk astir different things, but each the attraction volition beryllium connected the Ukraine crisis.

His signals to Vladimir Putin tin lone spell 3 ways:

1. Time to see pulling backmost with immoderate face-saving compromise

2. Green airy to support going oregon adjacent spell successful harder

3. Nothing either mode from China's leader

With enactment one, if it involves Beijing again being capable to assertion the mantle of planetary peacemaker pursuing the Iran-Saudi deal, this would beryllium rather a neat feather successful Xi's cap.

The main occupation with that enactment is the grade to which it would besides payment China.

The bleakest of options is fig two, but determination is simply a speechmaking whereby Russia's warfare with Ukraine plays into Beijing's geopolitical strategy. The Kremlin is taking connected the West, eating up Nato resources and, the longer the warfare goes on, the much it tests the appetite of the Western nationalist for yet much struggle if the People's Liberation Army should determination to instrumentality Taiwan by force.

The calculation from Beijing could beryllium that, the longer the warfare continues, the less radical are going to privation to get progressive successful different one.

The Chinese government's assertion to neutrality besides does not lucifer the state-controlled quality reporting here. The evening TV bulletins tally the Kremlin enactment and give a immense proportionality of their sum to blaming the "the West" for the "conflict". It doesn't talk astir a "war" and would ne'er imagination of referring to an "invasion" of Ukraine.

Publicly, China says the sovereignty of each nations should beryllium respected (ie Ukraine's), but truthful should the "legitimate information concerns" of different countries (ie Russia).

Yet it is not Kyiv wherever Xi Jinping is visiting. It's Moscow.

So, erstwhile Xi leaves Moscow successful a fewer days, Putin volition either beryllium disquieted astir wavering Chinese enactment oregon buoyed by the backing of 1 of the 2 astir almighty radical connected the planet.

The astute wealth seems to beryllium connected the latter.