Nato summit: Ukraine's future membership to be discussed by leaders in Vilnius

1 year ago 16

NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg and Lithuanian President Nauseda successful  VilniusImage source, Alamy

Image caption,

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda (r) hosts Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and the leaders of subordinate countries.

By James Landale

Diplomatic correspondent, Vilnius

Nato leaders are gathering successful Lithuania for a important acme that could signifier the absorption of the warfare successful Ukraine and the aboriginal of the Western alliance.

The 31 allies anticipation to amusement Russia they person the resoluteness to enactment Ukraine militarily for the agelong term.

They get with a invited boost aft Turkey dropped its objections to Sweden joining the alliance.

But determination remains disagreement implicit what to accidental astir Ukraine's ain ambitions of aboriginal membership.

It is thought immoderate allies volition committedness Kyiv caller information guarantees designed to deter aboriginal Russian aggression. They volition besides sermon providing much weapons and ammunition.

On the rank issue, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants Nato to accidental Ukraine could articulation arsenic soon arsenic imaginable aft the warring ends - mounting retired explicitly however and erstwhile this could beryllium achieved.

But immoderate Nato nations are reluctant to spell excessively far, fearing the committedness of near-automatic rank could springiness Russia an inducement some to escalate and resistance retired the war.

Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato caput general, said nary last determination had been made connected the connection of the last communiqué, but added: "I americium perfectly definite that we volition person unity and a beardown connection connected Ukraine."

But aft precocious nighttime talks connected Monday, helium announced that Turkey had agreed to enactment Sweden's exertion to articulation Nato. The quality was welcomed by the US and Germany, arsenic good arsenic Sweden itself.

Turkey had spent months blocking Stockholm's application, accusing it of hosting Kurdish militants. Mr Stoltenberg said the 2 sides had worked unneurotic to code Turkey's "legitimate information concerns".

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier suggested helium would backmost Sweden if the EU re-opened frozen rank talks with Ankara - a petition that was rejected by EU officials.

Over their two-day meeting, Nato leaders are expected to hold caller plans to deter and support the confederation against aboriginal Russian aggression by beefing up their forces successful the east.

And they are besides expected to measurement up their fiscal commitment, making the people of spending 2% of nationalist wealthiness connected defence a minimum figure, alternatively than a wide ambition. Rishi Sunak's spokesperson said the UK premier curate would telephone connected allies straight to conscionable this target.

Security is choky successful Vilnius, with Nato forces - including Patriot aerial defence missiles - defending a acme taking spot lone a abbreviated region from Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

The overarching purpose of the gathering is for Nato to person President Vladimir Putin of the alliance's semipermanent subject committedness to Ukraine.

Officials anticipation this could statesman to alteration the Russian leader's thinking, putting uncertainty successful his caput that helium tin outwait the West.

As such, immoderate spot this acme arsenic perchance arsenic important arsenic subject gains connected the battlefield successful persuading Mr Putin to alteration his strategy.

So immoderate Nato members volition committedness Ukraine caller information guarantees. US President Joe Biden has suggested Ukraine could get the benignant of subject enactment his state gives Israel - semipermanent commitments designed to deter imaginable aggressors.

The confederation volition besides deepen its organization links with Ukraine. An existing forum - the Ukraine Nato Commission - volition beryllium upgraded to a Ukraine Nato Council. This volition springiness Ukraine the quality to summon meetings of the confederation arsenic an adjacent spouse circular the table. "The close to consult is not insignificant," said 1 official.

But possibly astir importantly, immoderate members are expected to acceptable retired much explicitly Ukraine's pathway to joining the alliance.

Nato agreed astatine its 2008 acme successful Bucharest that Ukraine "will" go a subordinate and supported its application. But the confederation did not accidental however and erstwhile this mightiness happen. Critics accidental giving Ukraine a destination but nary itinerary allowed Mr Putin to hazard his invasions successful some 2014 and 2022.

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Image caption,

Leaders are expected to beef up their forces successful Eastern Europe

Kyiv accepts Nato cannot formally invitation Ukraine to articulation portion warring rages. That would hazard plunging the confederation into warfare with Russia, arsenic Nato would beryllium obliged nether Article 5 of its pact to support immoderate subordinate that is nether attack.

Instead, Kyiv wants a wide committedness of post-war rank with a timeline, truthful it knows triumph volition bring the information warrant of Nato's atomic umbrella.

One mode for Nato to awesome its tendency to invited Ukraine into its ranks would beryllium to shorten the alleged rank exertion plan, known arsenic the MAP. This is the ceremonial process which tests whether a state meets Nato's strict subject and governmental standards - and it tin instrumentality decades.

But it is what Nato mightiness really accidental astir Ukraine's imaginable rank that is dividing the alliance.

The Baltic states and eastbound European nations are pushing for arsenic overmuch clarity arsenic possible. They privation the confederation to marque wide however overmuch advancement Ukraine has made towards membership, particularly however overmuch much intimately its service tin run with different Nato forces, present that it shares akin weapons and strategies. They besides privation Nato to marque wide what further conditions Ukraine indispensable conscionable to execute membership.

Gitanas Nauseda, the president of Lithuania, said Nato should debar Ukraine's rank becoming a horizon: "The much you locomotion towards it, the farther it is."

But immoderate allies - including the US and Germany - are cautious astir promising Ukraine excessively much. They privation Ukraine to bash much to tackle corruption, fortify its judiciary and guarantee civilian power implicit its military.

Some besides interest astir Nato getting dragged into unfastened struggle with Russia. They fearfulness promising Ukraine rank aft the warfare would springiness Putin an inducement some to escalate the struggle and resistance it out, maintaining low-intensity warring to forestall Ukraine ever joining.

Other allies besides fearfulness losing country for manoeuvre successful immoderate post-war negotiations. They privation to usage the committedness of Nato rank arsenic a carrot for Ukraine and a instrumentality for Russia, but lone aft the warring has ended.

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