Turkey elections: Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu offer stark choices for presidency

Turks are astatine a historical turning constituent - choosing betwixt 2 front-runners for the presidency offering dramatically antithetic paths for their country's future.

After much than 20 years successful power, Recep Tayyip Erdogan promises a strong, multilateral Turkey and the instauration of six cardinal jobs, and accuses the West of trying to bring him down.

His main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, backed by a wide opposition, wants to steer this Nato subordinate authorities backmost towards a pro-Western, much antiauthoritarian stance.

The president accuses his opponents of being "pro-LGBT", portion his Islamist-rooted enactment positions itself arsenic connected the broadside of the family.

Since 2017, Mr Erdogan has tally Turkey with sweeping statesmanlike powers, from a immense palace successful Ankara. As enforcement president helium tin state a authorities of exigency and tin prime oregon disregard civilian servants.

If helium wins, not overmuch volition change, says Selim Koru, a subordinate of Turkey's Tepav deliberation tank. His powers are already truthful wide helium won't question to widen them further, helium says.

But the antheral seeking to regenerate him wants to scrap the statesmanlike strategy and go an "impartial" leader, with nary transportation to a governmental party.

Mr Kilicdaroglu says helium would rotation Turkey backmost to having parliament and a premier curate successful charge, and revive autarkic courts and a escaped press. "I volition service each 85 cardinal citizens of Turkey. I volition amusement respect for each of you," helium has promised.

The different 5 parties successful his confederation would each person a vice president, arsenic would his enactment colleagues who are mayors of Ankara and Istanbul.

Before they bash scrap the almighty presidency, they mightiness request to usage its powers to unit done the reforms if they bash not person capable power of parliament.

Parliamentary and statesmanlike elections volition some beryllium taking spot connected 14 May.

Turkey is portion of the West's Nato antiaircraft alliance, but the Erdogan presidency has sought adjacent ties with China and Russia too, buying a Russian S-400 aerial defence strategy and inaugurating a Russian-built atomic works - Turkey's archetypal - up of the election.

He advocates a multilateral stance, viewing Turkey arsenic "an land of bid and security", and offering Ankara arsenic a mediator successful the Russian warfare successful Ukraine.

His hostile and his allies, meanwhile, privation to instrumentality to the process of joining the European Union and reconstruct Turkey's subject ties with the US, portion maintaining relations with Russia.

If Mr Erdogan stays successful powerfulness past Selim Koru believes helium volition proceed to propulsion Turkey distant from the West, without leaving Nato. "He wants to get Turkey to a constituent successful the mean word oregon distant aboriginal wherever Nato rank is irrelevant."

This is simply a crunch infinitesimal for Turkey's system too. Inflation is officially 43.68%, and Turks person had a outgo of surviving situation acold much terrible than most. Many volition archer you the existent ostentation complaint feels acold higher.

The aboriginal Erdogan years were a byword for beardown economical maturation and tremendous operation projects. And Turkey ever stuck intimately to the presumption of its indebtedness agreements with the IMF.

But successful caller years his authorities has abandoned orthodox economical policy. It gradually eroded the independency of the cardinal bank, says Selva Demiralp, prof of economics astatine Koc University, sacking 3 of its governors successful speedy succession.

Inflation soared, arsenic involvement rates were kept debased - portion Turkey's currency the lira depreciated to amended the commercialized equilibrium and boost exports.

Mr Erdogan inactive promises precocious growth, six cardinal caller jobs and a large propulsion for tourism, but Prof Demiralp believes his policies volition support ostentation arsenic precocious arsenic 45% for months to come.

If Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his allies triumph the presidency and parliament, she believes a instrumentality to orthodox economical policies and an autarkic cardinal slope volition little ostentation to 30% by the extremity of 2023 and it volition proceed to spell down aft that.

Even if it means higher involvement rates, Prof Demiralp believes Turkey could bask beardown maturation from overseas investment: "At the infinitesimal Turkey is alternatively inexpensive and its location, young colonisation and the infrastructure connection mutually beneficial concern opportunities for planetary investors."

This predetermination is being watched precise cautiously by 3.5 cardinal Syrian refugees who person impermanent extortion successful Turkey, arsenic the absorption challenger wants to nonstop them location "within 2 years astatine the latest".

That's a large interest for Syrians, who came present chiefly successful the archetypal six years of the warfare until 2017.

More than than 80% of Turks privation them to spell home, and aft the system and the aftermath of the earthquake it is the astir important contented for Turks, says Prof Murat Erdogan, who conducts a regular Syrians Barometer.

And yet much than 700,000 Syrians are successful Turkish schools and 880,000 Syrian babies person been calved successful Turkey since 2011. "I cannot recognize however they would permission this beingness and spell backmost to Syria," says Prof Erdogan.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu says helium volition negociate the Syrians' instrumentality with Damascus, but arsenic Syria insists connected Turkey leaving its 30km (18-mile) buffer portion implicit the border, that runs the hazard of Syria launching attacks connected the portion and sparking a caller question of refugees.

The absorption person knows afloat good an statement would instrumentality up to 2 years, and helium would inquire the United Nations to oversee it. But argues Murat Erdogan believes it could instrumentality a decennary to implement.

President Erdogan has sought to defuse the issue, by promising to velocity up the voluntary repatriation of a cardinal Syrians done an statement with President Bashar al-Assad. But the thought of Syrians returning voluntarily seems far-fetched.

There is simply a batch astatine involvement successful this predetermination for Turkey's Kurds, who marque up arsenic overmuch arsenic a 5th of Turkey's 85 cardinal people.

Up to 1 successful 10 voters backmost the pro-Kurdish HDP, who are the 2nd biggest absorption party. They person publically backed Kemal Kilicdaroglu for president and spot the ballot arsenic "the astir important elections successful Turkey's history".

Kurdish voters initially backed the Erdogan government's policies arsenic their rights were improved successful the archetypal decennary of his rule. But that turned sour successful 2015, erstwhile bid talks broke down connected ending a decades-long insurgency by the Kurdish militant PKK, seen by Turkey and its Western allies arsenic a violent group.

President Erdogan accuses Mr Kilicdaroglu of surrendering to the "blackmail" and docket of the HDP and militants. "My federation volition not manus this state implicit to a president who got enactment from Qandil," helium warned, raising the stakes inactive higher by referring to the militants' office successful bluish Iraq.

The absorption challenger has openly courted Turkey's Kurdish population, millions of whom helium says are "treated arsenic terrorists connected a regular basis" and are stigmatised by a authorities looking for the nationalist vote.

The pro-Kurdish enactment vehemently denies authorities allegations of being a "political wing" for the militants. It is lasting nether an umbrella Green Left question successful lawsuit the authorities seeks to barroom its candidates.