Turkey's push into Iraq risks deeper conflict - Reuters

SARARO, Iraq, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Looming implicit the deserted colony of Sararo successful bluish Iraq, 3 Turkish subject outposts interruption the skyline, portion of an incursion that forced the residents to fly past twelvemonth aft days of shelling.

The outposts are conscionable immoderate of the dozens of caller subject bases Turkey has established connected Iraqi ungraded successful the past 2 years arsenic it steps up its decades-long violative against Kurdish militants sheltered successful the distant and rugged region.

"When Turkey archetypal came to the area, they acceptable up tiny portable tents, but successful the spring, they acceptable up outposts with bricks and cement," Sararo's politician Abdulrahman Hussein Rashid said successful December during a sojourn to the village, wherever ammunition casings and shrapnel inactive litter the ground.

"They person drones and cameras operating 24/7. They cognize everything that's going on," helium told Reuters, arsenic drones buzzed overhead successful the mountainous terrain 5 km from the frontier.

Turkey's advances crossed the progressively depopulated borderline of Iraqi Kurdistan pull small planetary attraction compared to its incursions into Syria oregon the conflict against Islamic State, but the escalation risks further destabilising a portion wherever overseas powers person intervened with impunity, analysts say.

Turkey could go further embroiled if its caller Iraqi bases travel nether sustained attack, portion its increasing beingness whitethorn besides embolden Iran to grow subject enactment successful Iraq against groups it accuses of fomenting unrest astatine home, Kurdish officials say.

Former caput wide for Kurdistan's Peshmerga forces, Jabar Manda, said Turkey had 29 outposts successful Iraq until 2019 but the fig has mushroomed arsenic Ankara tries to halt the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) launching attacks connected its ain territory.

"Year aft twelvemonth the outposts person been expanding aft the escalation of battles betwixt Turkish forces and the PKK," helium said, estimating the existent fig astatine 87, mostly successful a portion of borderline territory astir 150 km agelong (95 miles) and 30 km deep.

"In those outposts determination are tanks and armoured vehicles," said Manda, who is present a information expert successful Sulaimaniya. "Helicopters proviso the outposts daily."

EMPTY VILLAGES

A Kurdish official, who declined to beryllium named, besides said Turkey present had astir 80 outposts successful Iraq. Another Kurdish authoritative said astatine slightest 50 had been built successful the past 2 years and that Turkey's beingness was becoming much permanent.

Asked to remark connected its bases successful Iraq, Turkey's defence ministry said its operations determination were successful enactment with nonfiction 51 of the U.N. Charter, which gives subordinate states the close to aforesaid defence successful the lawsuit of attacks.

"Our combat against coercion successful bluish Iraq is carried retired successful coordination and adjacent practice with the Iraqi authorities," the ministry said successful a statement, which did not code questions astir the figures cited by Kurdish officials.

Turkey's beingness successful bluish Iraq, which has agelong been extracurricular the nonstop power of the Baghdad government, dates backmost to the 1990s erstwhile erstwhile Iraqi person Saddam Hussein fto Turkish forces beforehand 5 km into the state to combat the PKK.

Since then, Turkey has built a important presence, including 1 basal astatine Bashiqa 80 km wrong Iraq, wherever it says Turkish troops were portion of an planetary ngo to bid and equip Iraqi forces to combat Islamic State.

Turkey said it worked to debar civilian casualties done its coordination with Iraqi authorities.

A study published successful August by a conjugation of NGOs, End Cross-Border Bombing, said astatine slightest 98 civilians were killed betwixt 2015 and 2021. The International Crisis Group, which gave a akin civilian decease toll, said 1,180 PKK militants were killed betwixt 2015 and 2023.

According to an authoritative with Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the struggle has besides emptied astatine slightest 800 villages since 2015, erstwhile a ceasefire betwixt Turkey and the PKK broke down, driving thousands of radical from their homes.

NEW TARGETS

Beyond the humanitarian impact, Turkey's incursion risks widening the struggle by giving carte blanche to determination rival Iran to measurement up quality operations wrong Iraq and instrumentality its ain subject action, Kurdish officials say.

Tehran has already fired missiles astatine bases of Kurdish groups it accuses of engagement successful protests against its restrictions connected women, displacing hundreds of Iranian Kurds and sidesplitting some.

Iran did not respond to requests for comment.

Pro-Iranian militias successful Iraq besides person a pretext to respond to Turkey's presence, analysts say, raising the imaginable of escalation betwixt Turkish troops and groups too the PKK.

Hamdi Malik, a specializer connected Iraqi Shi'ite militias astatine the Washington Institute, said pro-Iranian groups specified arsenic Liwa Ahrar al-Iraq (Free People of Iraq Brigade) and Ahrar Sinjar (Free People of Sinjar) rebranded themselves past twelvemonth arsenic the absorption against the Turkish presence.

According to a Washington Institute report, attacks connected Turkish subject facilities successful Iraq accrued from an mean of 1.5 strikes per period astatine the commencement of 2022 to 7 successful April.

If the groups, which are profoundly hostile to Washington, measurement up operations that would besides undermine the power of the United States and its 2,000 troops successful Iraq, said Mustafa Gurbuz, a non-resident chap astatine the Arab Center Washington.

"Turkey is underestimating the spot of absorption and the information that these facilities volition go targets successful the aboriginal and much truthful arsenic hostilities increase," said Sajad Jiyad, Baghdad-based expert for The Century Foundation, a U.S. think-tank.

'THEY HAVE BOTH WRONGED US'

Northern Iraq's fragmented authorities mean that neither the national authorities successful Baghdad nor the KRG determination authorization are beardown capable to situation Turkey's beingness - oregon to conscionable Ankara's extremity of containing the PKK themselves.

The Baghdad authorities has complained astir Ankara's incursions but has small authorization successful the chiefly Kurdish north, portion the region's ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) does not person the firepower to situation the PKK, contempt seeing it arsenic a potent and populist rival.

The KDP has historically cooperated with Turkey but has constricted power implicit a neighbour which wields acold greater subject and economical clout.

"We inquire each overseas subject groups - including the PKK - to not resistance the Kurdistan Region into immoderate benignant of conflicts oregon tensions," KRG spokesperson Jotiar Adil said.

"The PKK are the main crushed that pushed Turkey to participate our territories successful the Kurdistan Region. Therefore, we deliberation the PKK should leave," helium said. "We are not a broadside successful this long-standing struggle and we person nary plans to beryllium connected immoderate side."

Iraqi Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani told Reuters the struggle betwixt Turkey and the PKK was a substance of concern, but little pressing than the menace from Islamic State.

Hariam Mahmoud, a starring fig successful the Kurdistan Liberation Movement, a civilian absorption radical successful Iraq influenced by the ideas of jailed PKK person Abdullah Ocalan, said nary substance however overmuch Turkey squeezes them they volition proceed to resist.

"In our opinion, this is an concern and warring absorption is simply a morganatic right," said Mahmoud, who lives successful Garmiyan territory southbound of Sulaimaniya.

Civilians, meanwhile, proceed to wage the price.

Ramzan Ali, 72, was irrigating his tract successful Hirure a fewer km from Sararo successful 2021, erstwhile helium heard a immense blast. The adjacent happening helium remembers is being connected the crushed covered successful blood.

He said a Turkish ammunition had crashed into his spot - a regular occurrence erstwhile Turkish troops respond to PKK attacks with artillery.

"I watched my beingness flash earlier my eyes," Ali said successful the municipality of Zakho, wherever helium is inactive suffering from shrapnel wounds. "I americium huffy astatine some the PKK and Turkey. They person some wronged us."

Reporting by Amina Ismail successful Sararo, Ahmed Rasheed successful Baghdad and Kawa Omar successful Dohuk; Editing by Dominic Evans and David Clarke

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